Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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PT Bank BTPN Syariah Tbk (BTPS.JK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1,298.84 - $1,968.12$1,613.71
Multi-Stage$2,625.27 - $2,891.08$2,755.56
Blended Fair Value$2,184.64
Current Price$1,315.00
Upside66.13%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%68.1888.4258.6031.4342.620.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth---22.89%50.88%86.46%-26.26%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--7.53%7.02%2.68%0.95%1.22%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,152,990.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)259,604.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)893,386.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)230,598.00144,123.7586,474.25
Cash Retained (M)893,386.00893,386.00893,386.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-230,598.00-144,123.75-86,474.25
(=) Excess Retained (M)662,788.00749,262.25806,911.75
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)7,703.407,703.407,703.40
(=) Excess Retained per Share86.0497.26104.75
LTM Dividend per Share33.7033.7033.70
(+) Excess Retained per Share86.0497.26104.75
(=) Adjusted Dividend119.74130.96138.45
WACC / Discount Rate7.03%7.03%7.03%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$1,298.84$1,613.71$1,968.12
Upside / Downside-1.23%22.72%49.67%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,152,990.001,141,460.101,130,045.501,118,745.041,107,557.591,096,482.021,129,376.48
Payout Ratio22.52%36.01%49.51%63.01%76.50%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)259,604.00411,069.19559,479.11704,879.72847,316.38986,833.821,044,673.24

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.03%7.03%7.03%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)380,173.62384,052.95387,932.27
Year 2 PV (M)478,539.72488,355.67498,271.26
Year 3 PV (M)557,591.57574,835.46592,431.26
Year 4 PV (M)619,888.87645,580.37672,062.30
Year 5 PV (M)667,696.84702,465.36738,667.42
PV of Terminal Value (M)17,519,635.4118,431,923.4719,381,825.79
Equity Value (M)20,223,526.0321,227,213.2822,271,190.31
Shares Outstanding (M)7,703.407,703.407,703.40
Fair Value$2,625.27$2,755.56$2,891.08
Upside / Downside99.64%109.55%119.85%

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