DDM Analysis: BRGE5.SA

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$4.48 - $6.96	$5.63
Multi-Stage	$5.25 - $5.75	$5.49
Blended Fair Value	$5.56
Current Price	$10.82
Upside	-48.62%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015	2014
DPS	3.70%	1.30%	0.07	0.06	0.06	0.03	0.06	0.05	0.05	0.05	0.00	0.04
YoY Growth	-	-	3.14%	2.56%	77.83%	-39.42%	5.22%	0.20%	7.88%	0.00%	-100.00%	-23.36%
Dividend Yield	-	-	0.60%	0.55%	0.63%	0.26%	0.26%	1.51%	2.71%	2.01%	0.00%	1.34%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	33.68
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	4.80
(=) Cash Retained (M)	28.88

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	6.74	4.21	2.53
Cash Retained (M)	28.88	28.88	28.88
(-) Cash Required (M)	-6.74	-4.21	-2.53
(=) Excess Retained (M)	22.14	24.67	26.35
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	73.65	73.65	73.65
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.30	0.33	0.36
LTM Dividend per Share	0.07	0.07	0.07
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.30	0.33	0.36
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.37	0.40	0.42
WACC / Discount Rate	10.00%	10.00%	10.00%
Growth Rate	1.70%	2.70%	3.70%
Fair Value	$4.48	$5.63	$6.96
Upside / Downside	-58.59%	-48.00%	-35.69%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	33.68	34.59	35.52	36.48	37.46	38.47	39.63
Payout Ratio	14.26%	29.41%	44.55%	59.70%	74.85%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	4.80	10.17	15.83	21.78	28.04	34.62	36.65

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	10.00%	10.00%	10.00%
Growth Rate	1.70%	2.70%	3.70%
Year 1 PV (M)	9.16	9.25	9.34
Year 2 PV (M)	12.83	13.08	13.34
Year 3 PV (M)	15.89	16.36	16.84
Year 4 PV (M)	18.42	19.15	19.91
Year 5 PV (M)	20.47	21.50	22.57
PV of Terminal Value (M)	309.60	325.13	341.27
Equity Value (M)	386.36	404.47	423.26
Shares Outstanding (M)	73.65	73.65	73.65
Fair Value	$5.25	$5.49	$5.75
Upside / Downside	-51.51%	-49.24%	-46.88%

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Consórcio Alfa de Administração S.A. (BRGE5.SA)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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