Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Banco BTG Pactual S.A. (BPAC11.SA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Financial - Capital MarketsSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$189.51 - $613.28$574.73
Multi-Stage$80.69 - $88.32$84.43
Blended Fair Value$329.58
Current Price$48.26
Upside582.93%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS36.85%26.80%0.630.600.430.370.000.130.000.000.000.03
YoY Growth--5.27%40.49%15.98%0.00%-100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%-44.97%
Dividend Yield--1.87%1.68%2.16%1.41%0.00%1.56%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.74%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)14,680.57
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)4,019.82
(=) Cash Retained (M)10,660.75
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2,936.111,835.071,101.04
Cash Retained (M)10,660.7510,660.7510,660.75
(-) Cash Required (M)-2,936.11-1,835.07-1,101.04
(=) Excess Retained (M)7,724.638,825.689,559.71
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)4,760.624,760.624,760.62
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.621.852.01
LTM Dividend per Share0.840.840.84
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.621.852.01
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.472.702.85
WACC / Discount Rate6.87%6.87%6.87%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$189.51$574.73$613.28
Upside / Downside292.68%1,090.91%1,170.79%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)14,680.5715,634.8016,651.0617,733.3818,886.0520,113.6520,717.06
Payout Ratio27.38%39.91%52.43%64.95%77.48%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)4,019.826,239.158,730.0111,518.3214,632.2318,102.2819,163.28

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.87%6.87%6.87%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)5,783.075,837.895,892.70
Year 2 PV (M)7,500.347,643.207,787.41
Year 3 PV (M)9,172.529,435.839,704.14
Year 4 PV (M)10,800.4911,215.8411,643.07
Year 5 PV (M)12,385.1012,983.3013,604.40
PV of Terminal Value (M)338,487.85354,836.94371,811.75
Equity Value (M)384,129.38401,953.02420,443.47
Shares Outstanding (M)4,760.624,760.624,760.62
Fair Value$80.69$84.43$88.32
Upside / Downside67.20%74.95%83.00%

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