Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $10.31 - $14.05 | $12.21 |
| Multi-Stage | $21.65 - $23.72 | $22.66 |
| Blended Fair Value | $17.44 | |
| Current Price | $13.26 | |
| Upside | 31.49% | |
| Decision | Don't Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | -3.91% | -0.96% | 0.85 | 0.81 | 0.62 | 0.49 | 0.74 | 1.04 | 1.04 | 1.04 | 1.12 | 1.75 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | 5.45% | 31.15% | 25.68% | -33.21% | -29.45% | 0.13% | -0.12% | -6.72% | -36.18% | 86.23% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 6.77% | 6.50% | 4.93% | 5.18% | 10.35% | 8.77% | 9.96% | 7.23% | 7.74% | 13.97% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 54.87 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 53.92 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 0.96 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 10.97 | 6.86 | 4.12 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 0.96 | 0.96 | 0.96 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -10.97 | -6.86 | -4.12 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | -10.02 | -5.90 | -3.16 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 26.68 | 26.68 | 26.68 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | -0.38 | -0.22 | -0.12 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 2.02 | 2.02 | 2.02 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | -0.38 | -0.22 | -0.12 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 1.65 | 1.80 | 1.90 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.10% | 9.10% | 9.10% |
| Growth Rate | -5.91% | -4.91% | -3.91% |
| Fair Value | $10.31 | $12.21 | $14.05 |
| Upside / Downside | -22.24% | -7.92% | 5.93% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 54.87 | 52.18 | 49.61 | 47.17 | 44.86 | 42.65 | 43.93 |
| Payout Ratio | 98.26% | 96.61% | 94.95% | 93.30% | 91.65% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 53.92 | 50.41 | 47.11 | 44.02 | 41.11 | 38.39 | 40.64 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.10% | 9.10% | 9.10% |
| Growth Rate | -5.91% | -4.91% | -3.91% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 45.72 | 46.20 | 46.69 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 38.75 | 39.58 | 40.42 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 32.84 | 33.90 | 34.98 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 27.82 | 29.02 | 30.26 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 23.56 | 24.84 | 26.17 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 408.97 | 431.18 | 454.33 |
| Equity Value (M) | 577.66 | 604.71 | 632.84 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 26.68 | 26.68 | 26.68 |
| Fair Value | $21.65 | $22.66 | $23.72 |
| Upside / Downside | 63.25% | 70.90% | 78.85% |
| Ticker ⇵ | Company ⇵ | Dividend Yield % ▼ | Dividend Per Share ⇵ | Payout Ratio % ⇵ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MDC | M.D.C. Holdings, Inc. | 0.86% | $0.54 | 55.94% |
| AXP | American Express Company | 0.85% | $3.17 | 20.85% |
| FOXA | Fox Corporation | 0.85% | $0.62 | 13.96% |
| LMST | Limestone Bancorp, Inc. | 0.85% | $0.20 | 8.06% |
| RCL | Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. | 0.85% | $2.41 | 16.19% |
| AZZ | AZZ Inc. | 0.84% | $0.92 | 8.89% |
| HIBB | Hibbett, Inc. | 0.84% | $0.74 | 9.00% |
| MAR | Marriott International, Inc. | 0.84% | $2.62 | 27.38% |
| MORN | Morningstar, Inc. | 0.84% | $1.77 | 20.03% |
| SGH | SMART Global Holdings, Inc. | 0.84% | $0.14 | 30.96% |
| URI | United Rentals, Inc. | 0.84% | $7.13 | 18.10% |
| 0HYJ.L | Cintas Corporation | 0.83% | $1.54 | 34.15% |
| EFX | Equifax Inc. | 0.83% | $1.78 | 33.46% |
| GM | General Motors Company | 0.82% | $0.66 | 21.22% |
| KVSA | Khosla Ventures Acquisition Co. | 0.81% | $0.09 | 9.61% |
| WMT | Walmart Inc. | 0.81% | $0.91 | 31.92% |
| BMI | Badger Meter, Inc. | 0.80% | $1.41 | 30.10% |
| FRD | Friedman Industries, Incorporated | 0.80% | $0.16 | 9.82% |
| ITT | ITT Inc. | 0.80% | $1.40 | 22.66% |
| MLI | Mueller Industries, Inc. | 0.80% | $0.94 | 13.89% |
| SSSSL | SuRo Capital Corp. 6.00% Notes due 2026 | 0.80% | $0.20 | 8.46% |
| RGLD | Royal Gold, Inc. | 0.79% | $1.75 | 24.00% |
| VRSK | Verisk Analytics, Inc. | 0.79% | $1.74 | 26.41% |
| COF | Capital One Financial Corporation | 0.78% | $1.94 | 87.57% |
| EE | Excelerate Energy, Inc. | 0.78% | $0.22 | 9.21% |
| 0K36.L | Moody's Corporation | 0.77% | $3.82 | 30.70% |
| HCI | HCI Group, Inc. | 0.77% | $1.42 | 9.00% |
| PH | Parker-Hannifin Corporation | 0.77% | $6.85 | 24.15% |
| SEI | Solaris Energy Infrastructure, Inc. | 0.77% | $0.39 | 44.96% |
| 0HQN.L | Cboe Global Markets, Inc. | 0.76% | $1.90 | 20.31% |
| ASIC | Ategrity Specialty Holdings LLC | 0.76% | $0.15 | 12.77% |
| GL | Globe Life Inc. | 0.75% | $1.03 | 7.35% |
| 0KYY.L | S&P Global Inc. | 0.74% | $3.81 | 28.09% |
| PHM | PulteGroup, Inc. | 0.74% | $0.89 | 6.67% |
| ROP | Roper Technologies, Inc. | 0.74% | $3.20 | 22.09% |
| ZWS | Zurn Elkay Water Solutions Corporation | 0.74% | $0.35 | 30.63% |
| JOE | The St. Joe Company | 0.73% | $0.43 | 24.05% |
| TOL | Toll Brothers, Inc. | 0.73% | $0.99 | 7.16% |
| TTEK | Tetra Tech, Inc. | 0.73% | $0.25 | 26.25% |
| 0HCB.L | Alcoa Corporation | 0.72% | $0.40 | 9.08% |
| A | Agilent Technologies, Inc. | 0.72% | $0.99 | 21.64% |
| FCFS | FirstCash Holdings, Inc | 0.72% | $1.13 | 16.40% |
| TRAK | ReposiTrak, Inc. | 0.72% | $0.09 | 22.94% |
| BKNG | Booking Holdings Inc. | 0.71% | $37.78 | 24.39% |
| PGC | Peapack-Gladstone Financial Corporation | 0.71% | $0.20 | 10.22% |
| ASO | Academy Sports and Outdoors, Inc. | 0.70% | $0.37 | 6.63% |
| BRO | Brown & Brown, Inc. | 0.70% | $0.54 | 18.02% |
| INTU | Intuit Inc. | 0.70% | $4.39 | 29.97% |
| MSFT | Microsoft Corporation | 0.70% | $3.31 | 23.52% |
| NCR | NCR Corporation | 0.70% | $0.11 | 1.70% |