Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Nippon Express Holdings,Inc. (9147.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Integrated Freight & LogisticsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1,800.00 - $3,317.54$2,425.03
Multi-Stage$3,021.33 - $3,312.94$3,164.37
Blended Fair Value$2,794.70
Current Price$2,720.00
Upside2.75%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202120202019201820172016
DPS0.00%0.00%100.800.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--3.71%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)32,159.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)25,999.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)6,160.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)6,431.804,019.882,411.93
Cash Retained (M)6,160.006,160.006,160.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-6,431.80-4,019.88-2,411.93
(=) Excess Retained (M)-271.802,140.133,748.08
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)259.91259.91259.91
(=) Excess Retained per Share-1.058.2314.42
LTM Dividend per Share100.03100.03100.03
(+) Excess Retained per Share-1.058.2314.42
(=) Adjusted Dividend98.98108.26114.45
WACC / Discount Rate6.51%6.51%6.51%
Growth Rate0.96%1.96%2.96%
Fair Value$1,800.00$2,425.03$3,317.54
Upside / Downside-33.82%-10.84%21.97%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)32,159.0032,790.2533,433.8934,090.1734,759.3335,441.6336,504.87
Payout Ratio80.85%82.68%84.51%86.34%88.17%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)25,999.0027,109.7128,254.0229,432.8030,646.9731,897.4633,767.01

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.51%6.51%6.51%
Growth Rate0.96%1.96%2.96%
Year 1 PV (M)25,201.9325,451.5525,701.16
Year 2 PV (M)24,417.3224,903.4025,394.28
Year 3 PV (M)23,646.0324,355.6225,079.28
Year 4 PV (M)22,888.8023,809.1824,757.04
Year 5 PV (M)22,146.2723,264.9624,428.41
PV of Terminal Value (M)666,978.53700,670.23735,709.89
Equity Value (M)785,278.86822,454.94861,070.07
Shares Outstanding (M)259.91259.91259.91
Fair Value$3,021.33$3,164.37$3,312.94
Upside / Downside11.08%16.34%21.80%

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