Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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The Gunma Bank, Ltd. (8334.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$6,706.94 - $24,257.75$21,248.67
Multi-Stage$3,054.55 - $3,342.96$3,196.11
Blended Fair Value$12,222.39
Current Price$1,210.50
Upside909.70%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS17.60%10.86%32.2620.9116.0515.3014.2214.3514.6813.6414.4714.08
YoY Growth--54.32%30.23%4.89%7.62%-0.87%-2.29%7.60%-5.71%2.76%22.35%
Dividend Yield--2.67%2.01%3.04%4.00%4.06%4.19%3.77%2.34%2.15%3.81%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)46,798.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)12,378.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)34,420.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)9,359.605,849.753,509.85
Cash Retained (M)34,420.0034,420.0034,420.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-9,359.60-5,849.75-3,509.85
(=) Excess Retained (M)25,060.4028,570.2530,910.15
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)383.67383.67383.67
(=) Excess Retained per Share65.3274.4780.56
LTM Dividend per Share32.2632.2632.26
(+) Excess Retained per Share65.3274.4780.56
(=) Adjusted Dividend97.58106.73112.83
WACC / Discount Rate7.03%7.03%7.03%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$6,706.94$21,248.67$24,257.75
Upside / Downside454.06%1,655.36%1,903.94%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)46,798.0049,839.8753,079.4656,529.6360,204.0564,117.3266,040.84
Payout Ratio26.45%39.16%51.87%64.58%77.29%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)12,378.0019,517.2327,532.2736,506.8046,531.6957,705.5861,087.77

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.03%7.03%7.03%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)18,063.2418,234.4518,405.67
Year 2 PV (M)23,582.8724,032.0624,485.48
Year 3 PV (M)28,940.4829,771.2630,617.78
Year 4 PV (M)34,139.5835,452.4936,802.91
Year 5 PV (M)39,183.6141,076.2043,041.21
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,028,028.151,077,682.291,129,236.81
Equity Value (M)1,171,937.921,226,248.741,282,589.87
Shares Outstanding (M)383.67383.67383.67
Fair Value$3,054.55$3,196.11$3,342.96
Upside / Downside152.34%164.03%176.16%

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