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Definitive Analysis

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Aichi Tokei Denki Co., Ltd. (7723.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Hardware, Equipment & PartsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$5,774.29 - $15,008.18$8,774.30
Multi-Stage$4,942.33 - $5,416.84$5,175.17
Blended Fair Value$6,974.74
Current Price$2,798.00
Upside149.28%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS11.12%7.90%67.7264.6046.7943.3539.9739.9743.1536.6633.3433.34
YoY Growth--4.83%38.06%7.95%8.46%0.00%-7.38%17.73%9.94%0.00%5.34%
Dividend Yield--2.98%2.81%3.10%3.20%2.79%2.67%3.08%2.61%2.64%3.33%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)3,905.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)253.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)3,652.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)781.00488.13292.88
Cash Retained (M)3,652.003,652.003,652.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-781.00-488.13-292.88
(=) Excess Retained (M)2,871.003,163.883,359.13
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)15.3915.3915.39
(=) Excess Retained per Share186.59205.62218.31
LTM Dividend per Share16.4416.4416.44
(+) Excess Retained per Share186.59205.62218.31
(=) Adjusted Dividend203.03222.07234.76
WACC / Discount Rate7.72%7.72%7.72%
Growth Rate4.06%5.06%6.06%
Fair Value$5,774.29$8,774.30$15,008.18
Upside / Downside106.37%213.59%436.39%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)3,905.004,102.744,310.504,528.774,758.104,999.045,149.01
Payout Ratio6.48%23.18%39.89%56.59%73.30%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)253.00951.141,719.342,562.903,487.484,499.134,762.83

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.72%7.72%7.72%
Growth Rate4.06%5.06%6.06%
Year 1 PV (M)874.55882.95891.36
Year 2 PV (M)1,453.581,481.651,509.99
Year 3 PV (M)1,992.272,050.262,109.36
Year 4 PV (M)2,492.692,589.892,689.91
Year 5 PV (M)2,956.813,101.633,252.07
PV of Terminal Value (M)66,276.0969,522.2772,894.43
Equity Value (M)76,045.9879,628.6683,347.13
Shares Outstanding (M)15.3915.3915.39
Fair Value$4,942.33$5,175.17$5,416.84
Upside / Downside76.64%84.96%93.60%

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