Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Beijing Tongyizhong New Material Technology Corporation (688722.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Apparel - ManufacturersSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$11.82 - $25.21$16.81
Multi-Stage$8.56 - $9.35$8.95
Blended Fair Value$12.88
Current Price$18.83
Upside-31.60%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020201920182017
DPS98.14%0.00%0.090.450.000.000.250.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth---79.25%70,428.45%0.00%-100.00%8,043.96%0.00%-100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.57%3.36%0.00%0.00%1.52%0.02%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)141.73
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)19.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)122.72
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)28.3517.7210.63
Cash Retained (M)122.72122.72122.72
(-) Cash Required (M)-28.35-17.72-10.63
(=) Excess Retained (M)94.38105.01112.10
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)226.55226.55226.55
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.420.460.49
LTM Dividend per Share0.080.080.08
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.420.460.49
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.500.550.58
WACC / Discount Rate9.97%9.97%9.97%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$11.82$16.81$25.21
Upside / Downside-37.24%-10.72%33.87%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)141.73150.94160.75171.20182.33194.18200.00
Payout Ratio13.41%28.73%44.04%59.36%74.68%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)19.0043.3670.80101.63136.17174.76185.00

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.97%9.97%9.97%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)39.0639.4339.80
Year 2 PV (M)57.4558.5559.65
Year 3 PV (M)74.2976.4278.60
Year 4 PV (M)89.6693.1196.66
Year 5 PV (M)103.66108.67113.87
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,574.981,651.051,730.03
Equity Value (M)1,939.112,027.232,118.61
Shares Outstanding (M)226.55226.55226.55
Fair Value$8.56$8.95$9.35
Upside / Downside-54.54%-52.48%-50.34%

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