DDM Analysis: 605500.SS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$1.99 - $3.09	$2.50
Multi-Stage	$4.78 - $5.25	$5.01
Blended Fair Value	$3.75
Current Price	$9.13
Upside	-58.90%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016
DPS	2.15%	0.00%	0.18	0.11	0.21	0.17	0.11	0.16	0.17	0.19	0.06	0.00
YoY Growth	-	-	64.52%	-47.95%	22.21%	52.02%	-30.10%	-7.75%	-7.43%	228.74%	0.00%	0.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	2.52%	1.50%	2.77%	2.15%	1.17%	1.20%	1.30%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	88.20
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	78.70
(=) Cash Retained (M)	9.50

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	17.64	11.03	6.62
Cash Retained (M)	9.50	9.50	9.50
(-) Cash Required (M)	-17.64	-11.03	-6.62
(=) Excess Retained (M)	-8.14	-1.53	2.88
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	418.24	418.24	418.24
(=) Excess Retained per Share	-0.02	0.00	0.01
LTM Dividend per Share	0.19	0.19	0.19
(+) Excess Retained per Share	-0.02	0.00	0.01
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.17	0.18	0.20
WACC / Discount Rate	6.32%	6.32%	6.32%
Growth Rate	-2.00%	-1.00%	0.00%
Fair Value	$1.99	$2.50	$3.09
Upside / Downside	-78.23%	-72.65%	-66.18%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	88.20	87.32	86.45	85.58	84.73	83.88	86.40
Payout Ratio	89.23%	89.38%	89.54%	89.69%	89.85%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	78.70	78.05	77.40	76.76	76.12	75.49	79.92

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.32%	6.32%	6.32%
Growth Rate	-2.00%	-1.00%	0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)	72.67	73.41	74.15
Year 2 PV (M)	67.10	68.48	69.87
Year 3 PV (M)	61.96	63.88	65.83
Year 4 PV (M)	57.21	59.58	62.03
Year 5 PV (M)	52.83	55.58	58.44
PV of Terminal Value (M)	1,685.87	1,773.65	1,865.06
Equity Value (M)	1,997.64	2,094.58	2,195.38
Shares Outstanding (M)	418.24	418.24	418.24
Fair Value	$4.78	$5.01	$5.25
Upside / Downside	-47.69%	-45.15%	-42.51%

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Forest Packaging Group Co.,Ltd. (605500.SS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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