DDM Analysis: 603949.SS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$4.94 - $8.82	$6.57
Multi-Stage	$6.33 - $6.94	$6.63
Blended Fair Value	$6.60
Current Price	$21.02
Upside	-68.61%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	118.37%	32.18%	0.32	0.29	0.29	0.29	0.21	0.01	0.17	0.03	0.71	0.03
YoY Growth	-	-	10.06%	0.58%	0.00%	40.00%	3,104.00%	-96.25%	522.92%	-96.11%	2,397.45%	44.45%
Dividend Yield	-	-	1.12%	1.87%	1.66%	1.12%	1.32%	0.04%	1.33%	0.21%	5.49%	0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	76.87
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	21.11
(=) Cash Retained (M)	55.76

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	15.37	9.61	5.77
Cash Retained (M)	55.76	55.76	55.76
(-) Cash Required (M)	-15.37	-9.61	-5.77
(=) Excess Retained (M)	40.39	46.15	50.00
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	216.09	216.09	216.09
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.19	0.21	0.23
LTM Dividend per Share	0.10	0.10	0.10
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.19	0.21	0.23
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.28	0.31	0.33
WACC / Discount Rate	7.77%	7.77%	7.77%
Growth Rate	1.90%	2.90%	3.90%
Fair Value	$4.94	$6.57	$8.82
Upside / Downside	-76.52%	-68.75%	-58.03%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	76.87	79.10	81.39	83.75	86.17	88.67	91.33
Payout Ratio	27.46%	39.97%	52.48%	64.99%	77.49%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	21.11	31.62	42.71	54.42	66.78	79.80	84.48

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	7.77%	7.77%	7.77%
Growth Rate	1.90%	2.90%	3.90%
Year 1 PV (M)	29.05	29.34	29.62
Year 2 PV (M)	36.06	36.78	37.49
Year 3 PV (M)	42.22	43.48	44.76
Year 4 PV (M)	47.61	49.50	51.45
Year 5 PV (M)	52.27	54.89	57.61
PV of Terminal Value (M)	1,159.86	1,217.90	1,278.24
Equity Value (M)	1,367.08	1,431.88	1,499.18
Shares Outstanding (M)	216.09	216.09	216.09
Fair Value	$6.33	$6.63	$6.94
Upside / Downside	-69.90%	-68.48%	-66.99%

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Xuelong Group Co.,Ltd (603949.SS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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