DDM Analysis: 603871.SS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$75.44 - $180.44	$169.10
Multi-Stage	$26.67 - $29.18	$27.90
Blended Fair Value	$98.50
Current Price	$14.30
Upside	588.80%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	62.89%	0.00%	0.55	0.21	0.14	0.19	0.13	0.05	0.03	0.00	0.06	0.10
YoY Growth	-	-	157.77%	57.19%	-28.07%	40.53%	180.00%	40.00%	0.00%	-100.00%	-34.78%	0.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	5.04%	1.67%	1.41%	3.95%	3.05%	1.23%	0.64%	0.00%	1.46%	2.23%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	1,061.74
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	513.50
(=) Cash Retained (M)	548.23

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	212.35	132.72	79.63
Cash Retained (M)	548.23	548.23	548.23
(-) Cash Required (M)	-212.35	-132.72	-79.63
(=) Excess Retained (M)	335.89	415.52	468.60
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	1,170.22	1,170.22	1,170.22
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.29	0.36	0.40
LTM Dividend per Share	0.44	0.44	0.44
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.29	0.36	0.40
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.73	0.79	0.84
WACC / Discount Rate	6.52%	6.52%	6.52%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$75.44	$169.10	$180.44
Upside / Downside	427.56%	1,082.50%	1,161.81%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	1,061.74	1,130.75	1,204.25	1,282.53	1,365.89	1,454.67	1,498.31
Payout Ratio	48.36%	56.69%	65.02%	73.35%	81.67%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	513.50	641.04	782.99	940.68	1,115.56	1,309.21	1,385.94

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.52%	6.52%	6.52%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	596.18	601.83	607.48
Year 2 PV (M)	677.23	690.13	703.15
Year 3 PV (M)	756.69	778.41	800.54
Year 4 PV (M)	834.57	866.66	899.67
Year 5 PV (M)	910.89	954.89	1,000.57
PV of Terminal Value (M)	27,433.02	28,758.04	30,133.78
Equity Value (M)	31,208.58	32,649.97	34,145.20
Shares Outstanding (M)	1,170.22	1,170.22	1,170.22
Fair Value	$26.67	$27.90	$29.18
Upside / Downside	86.50%	95.11%	104.04%

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Jiayou International Logistics Co.,Ltd (603871.SS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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