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Definitive Analysis

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Jinhong Fashion Group Co.,Ltd. (603518.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Apparel - ManufacturersSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$74.28 - $146.25$137.06
Multi-Stage$23.08 - $25.24$24.14
Blended Fair Value$80.60
Current Price$9.74
Upside727.51%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-10.10%20.71%0.410.310.420.540.610.710.710.600.050.06
YoY Growth--31.65%-24.15%-22.42%-12.72%-13.15%-0.45%18.86%1,091.14%-22.75%2.75%
Dividend Yield--4.64%3.34%4.99%5.43%10.44%10.19%5.59%3.83%0.20%0.34%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)258.74
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)171.32
(=) Cash Retained (M)87.43
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)51.7532.3419.41
Cash Retained (M)87.4387.4387.43
(-) Cash Required (M)-51.75-32.34-19.41
(=) Excess Retained (M)35.6855.0868.02
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)351.85351.85351.85
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.100.160.19
LTM Dividend per Share0.490.490.49
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.100.160.19
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.590.640.68
WACC / Discount Rate6.34%6.34%6.34%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$74.28$137.06$146.25
Upside / Downside662.61%1,307.16%1,401.54%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)258.74275.56293.47312.55332.87354.50365.14
Payout Ratio66.21%70.97%75.73%80.48%85.24%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)171.32195.56222.24251.55283.74319.05337.75

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.34%6.34%6.34%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)182.18183.91185.64
Year 2 PV (M)192.87196.54200.25
Year 3 PV (M)203.38209.22215.17
Year 4 PV (M)213.71221.93230.38
Year 5 PV (M)223.86234.68245.90
PV of Terminal Value (M)7,104.717,447.877,804.16
Equity Value (M)8,120.728,494.158,881.50
Shares Outstanding (M)351.85351.85351.85
Fair Value$23.08$24.14$25.24
Upside / Downside136.96%147.86%159.16%

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