DDM Analysis: 601999.SS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$1.30 - $1.82	$1.56
Multi-Stage	$2.41 - $2.65	$2.53
Blended Fair Value	$2.04
Current Price	$6.93
Upside	-70.53%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	-8.74%	5.97%	0.06	0.04	0.06	0.08	0.07	0.10	0.08	0.04	0.04	0.04
YoY Growth	-	-	47.60%	-25.55%	-26.42%	5.02%	-25.45%	25.00%	87.23%	0.36%	9.45%	9.71%
Dividend Yield	-	-	1.00%	0.62%	0.77%	1.16%	1.26%	1.52%	1.14%	0.56%	0.39%	0.39%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	135.28
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	24.75
(=) Cash Retained (M)	110.54

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	27.06	16.91	10.15
Cash Retained (M)	110.54	110.54	110.54
(-) Cash Required (M)	-27.06	-16.91	-10.15
(=) Excess Retained (M)	83.48	93.62	100.39
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	623.78	623.78	623.78
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.13	0.15	0.16
LTM Dividend per Share	0.04	0.04	0.04
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.13	0.15	0.16
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.17	0.19	0.20
WACC / Discount Rate	8.60%	8.60%	8.60%
Growth Rate	-4.19%	-3.19%	-2.19%
Fair Value	$1.30	$1.56	$1.82
Upside / Downside	-81.25%	-77.52%	-73.77%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	135.28	130.96	126.78	122.73	118.82	115.02	118.47
Payout Ratio	18.29%	32.63%	46.98%	61.32%	75.66%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	24.75	42.74	59.56	75.26	89.89	103.52	109.59

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	8.60%	8.60%	8.60%
Growth Rate	-4.19%	-3.19%	-2.19%
Year 1 PV (M)	38.95	39.35	39.76
Year 2 PV (M)	49.46	50.50	51.54
Year 3 PV (M)	56.95	58.75	60.59
Year 4 PV (M)	61.99	64.62	67.33
Year 5 PV (M)	65.06	68.52	72.14
PV of Terminal Value (M)	1,229.43	1,294.94	1,363.22
Equity Value (M)	1,501.83	1,576.69	1,654.59
Shares Outstanding (M)	623.78	623.78	623.78
Fair Value	$2.41	$2.53	$2.65
Upside / Downside	-65.26%	-63.53%	-61.72%

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Northern United Publishing & Media (Group) Company Limited (601999.SS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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