DDM Analysis: 601995.SS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$29.82 - $55.51	$40.33
Multi-Stage	$44.70 - $49.01	$46.82
Blended Fair Value	$43.57
Current Price	$36.89
Upside	18.11%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	14.21%	0.00%	0.28	0.19	0.31	0.19	0.88	0.14	0.14	0.14	0.01	0.00
YoY Growth	-	-	50.00%	-40.00%	66.67%	-79.00%	516.68%	0.00%	5.21%	1,018.63%	0.00%	0.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	0.80%	0.57%	0.79%	0.45%	1.80%	0.38%	0.38%	0.36%	0.03%	0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	9,402.87
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	5,862.35
(=) Cash Retained (M)	3,540.52

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	1,880.57	1,175.36	705.22
Cash Retained (M)	3,540.52	3,540.52	3,540.52
(-) Cash Required (M)	-1,880.57	-1,175.36	-705.22
(=) Excess Retained (M)	1,659.95	2,365.16	2,835.31
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	4,690.66	4,690.66	4,690.66
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.35	0.50	0.60
LTM Dividend per Share	1.25	1.25	1.25
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.35	0.50	0.60
(=) Adjusted Dividend	1.60	1.75	1.85
WACC / Discount Rate	6.87%	6.87%	6.87%
Growth Rate	1.42%	2.42%	3.42%
Fair Value	$29.82	$40.33	$55.51
Upside / Downside	-19.17%	9.32%	50.47%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	9,402.87	9,630.04	9,862.70	10,100.98	10,345.01	10,594.94	10,912.79
Payout Ratio	62.35%	67.88%	73.41%	78.94%	84.47%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	5,862.35	6,536.59	7,239.99	7,973.56	8,738.36	9,535.45	10,094.33

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.87%	6.87%	6.87%
Growth Rate	1.42%	2.42%	3.42%
Year 1 PV (M)	6,056.65	6,116.37	6,176.09
Year 2 PV (M)	6,215.84	6,339.03	6,463.42
Year 3 PV (M)	6,343.01	6,532.50	6,725.73
Year 4 PV (M)	6,441.00	6,698.83	6,964.32
Year 5 PV (M)	6,512.47	6,839.94	7,180.46
PV of Terminal Value (M)	178,122.54	187,079.22	196,392.63
Equity Value (M)	209,691.52	219,605.89	229,902.65
Shares Outstanding (M)	4,690.66	4,690.66	4,690.66
Fair Value	$44.70	$46.82	$49.01
Upside / Downside	21.18%	26.91%	32.86%

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China International Capital Corporation Limited (601995.SS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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