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Definitive Analysis

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Everbright Securities Company Limited (601788.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Financial - Capital MarketsSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$26.21 - $151.58$48.84
Multi-Stage$19.26 - $21.09$20.16
Blended Fair Value$34.50
Current Price$18.82
Upside83.33%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-2.36%46.30%0.740.630.690.650.640.830.860.610.950.19
YoY Growth--17.88%-8.99%6.07%1.33%-23.04%-2.43%39.55%-35.72%403.62%1,048.50%
Dividend Yield--4.34%3.80%4.53%5.22%3.95%7.58%6.45%4.98%6.22%0.99%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)3,746.07
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,254.30
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,491.76
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)749.21468.26280.95
Cash Retained (M)2,491.762,491.762,491.76
(-) Cash Required (M)-749.21-468.26-280.95
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,742.552,023.502,210.81
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)4,865.584,865.584,865.58
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.360.420.45
LTM Dividend per Share0.260.260.26
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.360.420.45
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.620.670.71
WACC / Discount Rate6.87%6.87%6.87%
Growth Rate4.42%5.42%6.42%
Fair Value$26.21$48.84$151.58
Upside / Downside39.26%159.53%705.41%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)3,746.073,949.104,163.134,388.774,626.634,877.395,023.71
Payout Ratio33.48%44.79%56.09%67.39%78.70%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,254.301,768.672,335.102,957.733,641.004,389.654,646.93

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.87%6.87%6.87%
Growth Rate4.42%5.42%6.42%
Year 1 PV (M)1,639.211,654.911,670.61
Year 2 PV (M)2,005.782,044.382,083.35
Year 3 PV (M)2,354.652,422.952,492.56
Year 4 PV (M)2,686.442,790.842,898.25
Year 5 PV (M)3,001.763,148.273,300.45
PV of Terminal Value (M)82,029.1786,032.9890,191.63
Equity Value (M)93,717.0298,094.34102,636.85
Shares Outstanding (M)4,865.584,865.584,865.58
Fair Value$19.26$20.16$21.09
Upside / Downside2.34%7.12%12.09%

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