DDM Analysis: 601616.SS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$0.19 - $0.29	$0.24
Multi-Stage	$0.26 - $0.28	$0.27
Blended Fair Value	$0.25
Current Price	$4.06
Upside	-93.75%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	9.98%	2.55%	0.07	0.07	0.00	0.10	0.06	0.04	0.02	0.00	0.06	0.06
YoY Growth	-	-	-1.50%	2,130.05%	-96.87%	74.62%	33.89%	102.86%	0.00%	-100.00%	-0.04%	-1.53%
Dividend Yield	-	-	1.62%	2.34%	0.09%	3.07%	1.74%	1.54%	0.47%	0.00%	0.94%	0.82%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	19.12
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	5.50
(=) Cash Retained (M)	13.62

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	3.82	2.39	1.43
Cash Retained (M)	13.62	13.62	13.62
(-) Cash Required (M)	-3.82	-2.39	-1.43
(=) Excess Retained (M)	9.80	11.23	12.19
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	849.65	849.65	849.65
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.01	0.01	0.01
LTM Dividend per Share	0.01	0.01	0.01
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.01	0.01	0.01
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.02	0.02	0.02
WACC / Discount Rate	9.87%	9.87%	9.87%
Growth Rate	0.55%	1.55%	2.55%
Fair Value	$0.19	$0.24	$0.29
Upside / Downside	-95.22%	-94.08%	-92.82%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	19.12	19.41	19.71	20.02	20.33	20.64	21.26
Payout Ratio	28.77%	41.01%	53.26%	65.51%	77.75%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	5.50	7.96	10.50	13.11	15.81	18.58	19.67

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	9.87%	9.87%	9.87%
Growth Rate	0.55%	1.55%	2.55%
Year 1 PV (M)	7.18	7.25	7.32
Year 2 PV (M)	8.53	8.70	8.87
Year 3 PV (M)	9.60	9.89	10.18
Year 4 PV (M)	10.43	10.85	11.28
Year 5 PV (M)	11.05	11.61	12.19
PV of Terminal Value (M)	170.35	178.99	187.98
Equity Value (M)	217.13	227.28	237.82
Shares Outstanding (M)	849.65	849.65	849.65
Fair Value	$0.26	$0.27	$0.28
Upside / Downside	-93.71%	-93.41%	-93.11%

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Shanghai Guangdian Electric Group Co., Ltd. (601616.SS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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