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Definitive Analysis

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Ningbo Sanxing Medical Electric Co.,Ltd. (601567.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Electrical Equipment & PartsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$103.07 - $281.08$263.41
Multi-Stage$40.35 - $44.11$42.19
Blended Fair Value$152.80
Current Price$24.54
Upside522.67%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS7.78%14.60%0.680.370.360.410.380.470.490.440.100.11
YoY Growth--86.11%3.33%-13.65%8.32%-19.16%-3.56%10.65%349.41%-7.89%-39.18%
Dividend Yield--2.31%1.27%2.79%3.75%5.69%6.37%6.68%4.95%0.82%0.81%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,971.66
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,293.60
(=) Cash Retained (M)678.05
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)394.33246.46147.87
Cash Retained (M)678.05678.05678.05
(-) Cash Required (M)-394.33-246.46-147.87
(=) Excess Retained (M)283.72431.59530.18
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,395.011,395.011,395.01
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.200.310.38
LTM Dividend per Share0.930.930.93
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.200.310.38
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.131.241.31
WACC / Discount Rate6.66%6.66%6.66%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$103.07$263.41$281.08
Upside / Downside320.01%973.41%1,045.40%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,971.662,099.812,236.302,381.662,536.472,701.342,782.38
Payout Ratio65.61%70.49%75.37%80.24%85.12%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,293.601,480.121,685.411,911.142,159.092,431.202,573.70

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.66%6.66%6.66%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,374.701,387.731,400.76
Year 2 PV (M)1,453.891,481.581,509.53
Year 3 PV (M)1,531.191,575.141,619.93
Year 4 PV (M)1,606.641,668.431,731.98
Year 5 PV (M)1,680.281,761.441,845.71
PV of Terminal Value (M)48,635.6750,984.7953,423.82
Equity Value (M)56,282.3758,859.1161,531.73
Shares Outstanding (M)1,395.011,395.011,395.01
Fair Value$40.35$42.19$44.11
Upside / Downside64.41%71.93%79.74%

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