DDM Analysis: 601399.SS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$0.36 - $0.49	$0.43
Multi-Stage	$0.55 - $0.61	$0.58
Blended Fair Value	$0.50
Current Price	$3.28
Upside	-84.68%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	-34.27%	-31.11%	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.01	0.01	0.06	0.01	0.00	0.00
YoY Growth	-	-	-49.07%	17.54%	-1.04%	-51.64%	-57.16%	-77.18%	336.84%	1,231.10%	-78.73%	-93.05%
Dividend Yield	-	-	0.06%	0.12%	0.09%	0.08%	0.15%	0.23%	0.99%	0.23%	0.02%	0.08%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	453.82
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	5.93
(=) Cash Retained (M)	447.89

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	90.76	56.73	34.04
Cash Retained (M)	447.89	447.89	447.89
(-) Cash Required (M)	-90.76	-56.73	-34.04
(=) Excess Retained (M)	357.13	391.17	413.86
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	7,210.28	7,210.28	7,210.28
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.05	0.05	0.06
LTM Dividend per Share	0.00	0.00	0.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.05	0.05	0.06
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.05	0.06	0.06
WACC / Discount Rate	10.00%	10.00%	10.00%
Growth Rate	-3.58%	-2.58%	-1.58%
Fair Value	$0.36	$0.43	$0.49
Upside / Downside	-89.10%	-87.00%	-84.91%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	453.82	442.11	430.70	419.59	408.76	398.22	410.16
Payout Ratio	1.31%	19.04%	36.78%	54.52%	72.26%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	5.93	84.20	158.43	228.77	295.38	358.40	379.40

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	10.00%	10.00%	10.00%
Growth Rate	-3.58%	-2.58%	-1.58%
Year 1 PV (M)	75.76	76.55	77.33
Year 2 PV (M)	128.26	130.93	133.64
Year 3 PV (M)	166.64	171.88	177.23
Year 4 PV (M)	193.59	201.75	210.16
Year 5 PV (M)	211.35	222.54	234.20
PV of Terminal Value (M)	3,196.30	3,365.52	3,541.84
Equity Value (M)	3,971.90	4,169.16	4,374.39
Shares Outstanding (M)	7,210.28	7,210.28	7,210.28
Fair Value	$0.55	$0.58	$0.61
Upside / Downside	-83.21%	-82.37%	-81.50%

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Sinomach Heavy Equipment Group Co., Ltd. (601399.SS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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