Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

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Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

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Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

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Mode

Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining Co.,Ltd. (600988.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: GoldSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$23.04 - $42.15$30.95
Multi-Stage$17.71 - $19.34$18.51
Blended Fair Value$24.73
Current Price$29.58
Upside-16.40%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS29.60%28.30%0.150.080.070.010.040.040.050.030.020.02
YoY Growth--82.27%11.40%1,032.55%-82.70%-8.13%-8.97%67.40%13.36%18.81%61.12%
Dividend Yield--0.66%0.48%0.41%0.04%0.26%0.49%1.01%0.43%0.33%0.23%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,717.16
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)387.48
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,329.67
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)543.43339.64203.79
Cash Retained (M)2,329.672,329.672,329.67
(-) Cash Required (M)-543.43-339.64-203.79
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,786.241,990.032,125.89
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,771.581,771.581,771.58
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.011.121.20
LTM Dividend per Share0.220.220.22
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.011.121.20
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.231.341.42
WACC / Discount Rate11.12%11.12%11.12%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$23.04$30.95$42.15
Upside / Downside-22.11%4.63%42.50%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,717.162,893.773,081.873,282.193,495.533,722.743,834.42
Payout Ratio14.26%29.41%44.56%59.70%74.85%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)387.48851.011,373.171,959.612,616.483,350.473,546.84

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate11.12%11.12%11.12%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)758.67765.87773.06
Year 2 PV (M)1,091.341,112.131,133.11
Year 3 PV (M)1,388.431,428.281,468.90
Year 4 PV (M)1,652.681,716.241,781.61
Year 5 PV (M)1,886.671,977.802,072.41
PV of Terminal Value (M)24,602.4325,790.7427,024.52
Equity Value (M)31,380.2232,791.0534,253.61
Shares Outstanding (M)1,771.581,771.581,771.58
Fair Value$17.71$18.51$19.34
Upside / Downside-40.12%-37.43%-34.63%

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