Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Shanghai Xinhua Media Co., Ltd. (600825.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: PublishingSector: Communication Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.29 - $0.40$0.34
Multi-Stage$0.43 - $0.48$0.46
Blended Fair Value$0.40
Current Price$6.76
Upside-94.08%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS5.39%-4.22%0.010.000.010.000.010.010.020.010.020.02
YoY Growth--0.00%-100.00%0.00%-100.00%-30.00%-33.33%7.14%-17.65%13.33%-25.00%
Dividend Yield--0.21%0.00%0.23%0.00%0.17%0.20%0.23%0.25%0.21%0.17%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)43.27
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)12.53
(=) Cash Retained (M)30.73
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)8.655.413.24
Cash Retained (M)30.7330.7330.73
(-) Cash Required (M)-8.65-5.41-3.24
(=) Excess Retained (M)22.0825.3227.49
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)997.88997.88997.88
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.020.030.03
LTM Dividend per Share0.010.010.01
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.020.030.03
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.030.040.04
WACC / Discount Rate9.91%9.91%9.91%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$0.29$0.34$0.40
Upside / Downside-95.78%-94.91%-94.01%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)43.2742.8342.4141.9841.5641.1542.38
Payout Ratio28.97%41.18%53.38%65.59%77.79%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)12.5317.6422.6427.5332.3337.0339.20

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.91%9.91%9.91%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)15.8916.0516.21
Year 2 PV (M)18.3618.7419.12
Year 3 PV (M)20.1220.7421.38
Year 4 PV (M)21.2822.1623.07
Year 5 PV (M)21.9523.0924.28
PV of Terminal Value (M)336.45353.97372.22
Equity Value (M)434.05454.75476.27
Shares Outstanding (M)997.88997.88997.88
Fair Value$0.43$0.46$0.48
Upside / Downside-93.57%-93.26%-92.94%

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