Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Shandong Xinchao Energy Corporation Limited (600777.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Oil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$13.83 - $50.13$43.69
Multi-Stage$6.28 - $6.88$6.57
Blended Fair Value$25.13
Current Price$3.61
Upside596.12%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS5.01%23.22%0.120.110.120.110.110.090.060.020.000.01
YoY Growth--6.77%-5.78%5.41%-1.63%22.40%56.91%161.65%0.00%-100.00%-12.75%
Dividend Yield--5.00%4.13%4.59%5.67%7.46%5.16%2.18%0.68%0.00%0.31%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,714.44
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)363.09
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,351.35
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)342.89214.31128.58
Cash Retained (M)1,351.351,351.351,351.35
(-) Cash Required (M)-342.89-214.31-128.58
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,008.471,137.051,222.77
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)6,801.916,801.916,801.91
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.150.170.18
LTM Dividend per Share0.050.050.05
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.150.170.18
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.200.220.23
WACC / Discount Rate7.04%7.04%7.04%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$13.83$43.69$50.13
Upside / Downside283.24%1,110.15%1,288.56%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,714.441,825.881,944.562,070.962,205.572,348.932,419.40
Payout Ratio21.18%34.94%48.71%62.47%76.24%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)363.09638.01947.141,293.751,681.432,114.042,237.95

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.04%7.04%7.04%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)590.46596.06601.66
Year 2 PV (M)811.23826.68842.28
Year 3 PV (M)1,025.531,054.971,084.97
Year 4 PV (M)1,233.511,280.951,329.74
Year 5 PV (M)1,435.311,504.631,576.61
PV of Terminal Value (M)37,631.5039,449.1141,336.29
Equity Value (M)42,727.5544,712.4146,771.56
Shares Outstanding (M)6,801.916,801.916,801.91
Fair Value$6.28$6.57$6.88
Upside / Downside74.01%82.09%90.48%

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