Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Xiamen Tungsten Co., Ltd. (600549.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial MaterialsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$65.80 - $267.34$172.95
Multi-Stage$32.49 - $35.52$33.98
Blended Fair Value$103.46
Current Price$29.60
Upside249.54%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS6.80%10.80%0.590.600.480.410.320.420.360.280.280.27
YoY Growth---3.14%26.68%16.73%26.30%-23.18%15.65%30.19%1.16%4.15%26.45%
Dividend Yield--3.03%3.07%2.34%2.21%1.76%3.72%2.34%1.38%1.67%1.81%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,107.33
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)896.58
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,210.75
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)421.47263.42158.05
Cash Retained (M)1,210.751,210.751,210.75
(-) Cash Required (M)-421.47-263.42-158.05
(=) Excess Retained (M)789.29947.341,052.70
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,567.661,567.661,567.66
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.500.600.67
LTM Dividend per Share0.570.570.57
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.500.600.67
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.081.181.24
WACC / Discount Rate7.22%7.22%7.22%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$65.80$172.95$267.34
Upside / Downside122.29%484.29%803.17%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,107.332,244.312,390.192,545.552,711.012,887.232,973.84
Payout Ratio42.55%52.04%61.53%71.02%80.51%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)896.581,167.861,470.621,807.812,182.612,598.502,750.81

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.22%7.22%7.22%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,078.951,089.181,099.40
Year 2 PV (M)1,255.221,279.131,303.26
Year 3 PV (M)1,425.551,466.471,508.17
Year 4 PV (M)1,590.071,651.221,714.11
Year 5 PV (M)1,748.931,833.401,921.11
PV of Terminal Value (M)43,828.2345,945.1548,143.09
Equity Value (M)50,926.9453,264.5455,689.15
Shares Outstanding (M)1,567.661,567.661,567.66
Fair Value$32.49$33.98$35.52
Upside / Downside9.75%14.79%20.01%

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