Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Shenzhen Expressway Corporation Limited (600548.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - Infrastructure OperationsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$62.49 - $104.74$98.15
Multi-Stage$17.29 - $18.91$18.09
Blended Fair Value$58.12
Current Price$9.95
Upside484.12%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS2.05%11.23%1.031.041.121.060.760.930.550.540.450.61
YoY Growth---1.26%-6.94%5.70%38.72%-17.83%69.22%1.45%19.00%-25.43%71.90%
Dividend Yield--9.15%10.64%12.82%10.98%7.19%10.67%5.03%6.43%5.23%6.84%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,241.32
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)951.39
(=) Cash Retained (M)289.93
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)248.26155.1793.10
Cash Retained (M)289.93289.93289.93
(-) Cash Required (M)-248.26-155.17-93.10
(=) Excess Retained (M)41.66134.76196.83
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,357.012,357.012,357.01
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.020.060.08
LTM Dividend per Share0.400.400.40
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.020.060.08
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.420.460.49
WACC / Discount Rate6.21%6.21%6.21%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$62.49$98.15$104.74
Upside / Downside528.04%886.48%952.64%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,241.321,322.011,407.941,499.451,596.921,700.721,751.74
Payout Ratio76.64%79.31%81.99%84.66%87.33%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)951.391,048.551,154.311,269.401,394.571,530.651,620.36

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.21%6.21%6.21%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)977.96987.23996.50
Year 2 PV (M)1,004.131,023.251,042.56
Year 3 PV (M)1,029.901,059.461,089.59
Year 4 PV (M)1,055.281,095.861,137.61
Year 5 PV (M)1,080.281,132.461,186.63
PV of Terminal Value (M)35,611.4837,331.5339,117.40
Equity Value (M)40,759.0242,629.7944,570.29
Shares Outstanding (M)2,357.012,357.012,357.01
Fair Value$17.29$18.09$18.91
Upside / Downside73.80%81.77%90.05%

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