DDM Analysis: 5278.TWO

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$7.96 - $11.96	$9.85
Multi-Stage	$16.08 - $17.66	$16.85
Blended Fair Value	$13.35
Current Price	$33.20
Upside	-59.78%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019
DPS	-10.38%	0.00%	0.50	0.80	0.79	0.57	0.43	0.86	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
YoY Growth	-	-	-37.62%	0.57%	40.61%	30.99%	-49.98%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	1.55%	4.24%	6.02%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	284.68
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	180.94
(=) Cash Retained (M)	103.74

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	56.94	35.59	21.35
Cash Retained (M)	103.74	103.74	103.74
(-) Cash Required (M)	-56.94	-35.59	-21.35
(=) Excess Retained (M)	46.80	68.15	82.39
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	300.25	300.25	300.25
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.16	0.23	0.27
LTM Dividend per Share	0.60	0.60	0.60
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.16	0.23	0.27
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.76	0.83	0.88
WACC / Discount Rate	7.33%	7.33%	7.33%
Growth Rate	-2.00%	-1.00%	0.00%
Fair Value	$7.96	$9.85	$11.96
Upside / Downside	-76.01%	-70.32%	-63.98%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	284.68	281.83	279.01	276.22	273.46	270.73	278.85
Payout Ratio	63.56%	68.85%	74.14%	79.42%	84.71%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	180.94	194.04	206.85	219.39	231.66	243.66	257.94

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	7.33%	7.33%	7.33%
Growth Rate	-2.00%	-1.00%	0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)	178.95	180.78	182.60
Year 2 PV (M)	175.94	179.54	183.19
Year 3 PV (M)	172.09	177.42	182.85
Year 4 PV (M)	167.59	174.53	181.69
Year 5 PV (M)	162.56	171.03	179.84
PV of Terminal Value (M)	3,969.96	4,176.69	4,391.94
Equity Value (M)	4,827.09	5,059.99	5,302.11
Shares Outstanding (M)	300.25	300.25	300.25
Fair Value	$16.08	$16.85	$17.66
Upside / Downside	-51.57%	-49.24%	-46.81%

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MORN	Morningstar, Inc.	0.84%	$1.77	20.03%
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BMI	Badger Meter, Inc.	0.80%	$1.41	30.10%
FRD	Friedman Industries, Incorporated	0.80%	$0.16	9.82%
ITT	ITT Inc.	0.80%	$1.40	22.66%
MLI	Mueller Industries, Inc.	0.80%	$0.94	13.89%
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VRSK	Verisk Analytics, Inc.	0.79%	$1.74	26.41%
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EE	Excelerate Energy, Inc.	0.78%	$0.22	9.21%
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HCI	HCI Group, Inc.	0.77%	$1.42	9.00%
PH	Parker-Hannifin Corporation	0.77%	$6.85	24.15%
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ZWS	Zurn Elkay Water Solutions Corporation	0.74%	$0.35	30.63%
JOE	The St. Joe Company	0.73%	$0.43	24.05%
TOL	Toll Brothers, Inc.	0.73%	$0.99	7.16%
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Sunfun Info Co., Ltd. (5278.TWO)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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