DDM Analysis: 4578.T

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$15,387.75 - $32,869.25	$21,902.57
Multi-Stage	$21,853.46 - $24,012.89	$22,912.56
Blended Fair Value	$22,407.57
Current Price	$7,859.00
Upside	185.12%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	3.74%	2.82%	125.33	104.48	104.30	105.10	104.56	104.30	103.80	102.99	102.69	91.54
YoY Growth	-	-	19.96%	0.17%	-0.76%	0.52%	0.24%	0.48%	0.79%	0.30%	12.17%	-3.54%
Dividend Yield	-	-	1.62%	1.65%	2.48%	2.48%	2.23%	2.47%	2.38%	1.93%	2.04%	2.24%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	449,106.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	70,975.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)	378,131.00

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	89,821.20	56,138.25	33,682.95
Cash Retained (M)	378,131.00	378,131.00	378,131.00
(-) Cash Required (M)	-89,821.20	-56,138.25	-33,682.95
(=) Excess Retained (M)	288,309.80	321,992.75	344,448.05
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	532.68	532.68	532.68
(=) Excess Retained per Share	541.24	604.47	646.63
LTM Dividend per Share	133.24	133.24	133.24
(+) Excess Retained per Share	541.24	604.47	646.63
(=) Adjusted Dividend	674.48	737.71	779.87
WACC / Discount Rate	6.30%	6.30%	6.30%
Growth Rate	1.83%	2.83%	3.83%
Fair Value	$15,387.75	$21,902.57	$32,869.25
Upside / Downside	95.80%	178.69%	318.24%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	449,106.00	461,830.50	474,915.53	488,371.29	502,208.30	516,437.34	531,930.46
Payout Ratio	15.80%	30.64%	45.48%	60.32%	75.16%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	70,975.00	141,518.24	216,001.89	294,592.63	377,463.39	464,793.61	492,035.68

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.30%	6.30%	6.30%
Growth Rate	1.83%	2.83%	3.83%
Year 1 PV (M)	131,840.22	133,134.89	134,429.55
Year 2 PV (M)	187,468.62	191,168.57	194,904.68
Year 3 PV (M)	238,192.69	245,278.96	252,504.39
Year 4 PV (M)	284,326.21	295,660.10	307,329.50
Year 5 PV (M)	326,165.27	342,497.57	359,477.67
PV of Terminal Value (M)	10,472,987.80	10,997,408.93	11,542,630.55
Equity Value (M)	11,640,980.81	12,205,149.01	12,791,276.34
Shares Outstanding (M)	532.68	532.68	532.68
Fair Value	$21,853.46	$22,912.56	$24,012.89
Upside / Downside	178.07%	191.55%	205.55%

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Otsuka Holdings Co., Ltd. (4578.T)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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