Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Haosen Fintech Group Limited (3848.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Financial - Credit ServicesSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.36 - $0.47$0.42
Multi-Stage$0.84 - $0.93$0.88
Blended Fair Value$0.65
Current Price$10.27
Upside-93.66%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-26.72%0.00%0.020.020.020.100.040.110.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--3.10%9.04%-79.46%147.98%-63.09%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.40%0.41%0.39%1.77%0.65%1.89%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)18.14
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)7.28
(=) Cash Retained (M)10.86
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)3.632.271.36
Cash Retained (M)10.8610.8610.86
(-) Cash Required (M)-3.63-2.27-1.36
(=) Excess Retained (M)7.238.599.49
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)156.94156.94156.94
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.050.050.06
LTM Dividend per Share0.050.050.05
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.050.050.06
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.090.100.11
WACC / Discount Rate8.60%8.60%8.60%
Growth Rate-13.38%-12.38%-11.38%
Fair Value$0.36$0.42$0.47
Upside / Downside-96.45%-95.89%-95.39%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)18.1415.8913.9212.2010.699.369.65
Payout Ratio40.14%50.11%60.09%70.06%80.03%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)7.287.968.378.558.558.438.92

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.60%8.60%8.60%
Growth Rate-13.38%-12.38%-11.38%
Year 1 PV (M)7.257.337.42
Year 2 PV (M)6.937.097.26
Year 3 PV (M)6.456.676.90
Year 4 PV (M)5.876.156.43
Year 5 PV (M)5.275.585.90
PV of Terminal Value (M)99.49105.37111.52
Equity Value (M)131.25138.19145.43
Shares Outstanding (M)156.94156.94156.94
Fair Value$0.84$0.88$0.93
Upside / Downside-91.86%-91.43%-90.98%

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