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Definitive Analysis

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CRE Logistics REIT, Inc. (3487.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: REIT - DiversifiedSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$906,649.49 - $2,095,989.41$1,964,249.03
Multi-Stage$317,577.37 - $347,213.14$332,124.50
Blended Fair Value$1,148,186.76
Current Price$151,000.00
Upside660.39%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020201920182017
DPS26.37%0.00%7,496.979,296.996,406.855,009.512,960.262,326.531,236.95538.840.000.00
YoY Growth---19.36%45.11%27.89%69.23%27.24%88.09%129.56%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--5.45%5.99%3.49%2.21%1.88%1.74%1.24%0.49%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)6,595.14
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)4,673.83
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,921.32
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,319.03824.39494.64
Cash Retained (M)1,921.321,921.321,921.32
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,319.03-824.39-494.64
(=) Excess Retained (M)602.291,096.921,426.68
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)0.630.630.63
(=) Excess Retained per Share962.471,752.912,279.88
LTM Dividend per Share7,468.917,468.917,468.91
(+) Excess Retained per Share962.471,752.912,279.88
(=) Adjusted Dividend8,431.389,221.839,748.79
WACC / Discount Rate6.48%6.48%6.48%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$906,649.49$1,964,249.03$2,095,989.41
Upside / Downside500.43%1,200.83%1,288.07%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)6,595.147,023.837,480.377,966.608,484.439,035.929,306.99
Payout Ratio70.87%74.69%78.52%82.35%86.17%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)4,673.835,246.395,873.646,560.267,311.338,132.328,608.97

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.48%6.48%6.48%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)4,880.804,927.064,973.33
Year 2 PV (M)5,083.565,180.395,278.13
Year 3 PV (M)5,282.175,433.805,588.31
Year 4 PV (M)5,476.695,687.305,903.94
Year 5 PV (M)5,667.175,940.906,225.10
PV of Terminal Value (M)172,340.25180,664.34189,307.03
Equity Value (M)198,730.63207,833.80217,275.83
Shares Outstanding (M)0.630.630.63
Fair Value$317,577.37$332,124.50$347,213.14
Upside / Downside110.32%119.95%129.94%

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