Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Shenmao Technology Inc (3305.TW)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Hardware, Equipment & PartsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$208.84 - $578.45$542.10
Multi-Stage$83.00 - $90.71$86.78
Blended Fair Value$314.44
Current Price$107.00
Upside193.87%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS16.81%1.06%1.921.912.381.280.860.880.882.030.911.76
YoY Growth--0.26%-19.79%86.11%49.25%-2.65%0.00%-56.52%123.84%-48.62%2.20%
Dividend Yield--3.24%2.99%4.96%1.69%1.94%4.92%4.43%8.04%2.74%7.19%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)401.16
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)290.60
(=) Cash Retained (M)110.56
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)80.2350.1430.09
Cash Retained (M)110.56110.56110.56
(-) Cash Required (M)-80.23-50.14-30.09
(=) Excess Retained (M)30.3360.4280.48
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)137.92137.92137.92
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.220.440.58
LTM Dividend per Share2.112.112.11
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.220.440.58
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.332.552.69
WACC / Discount Rate6.68%6.68%6.68%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$208.84$542.10$578.45
Upside / Downside95.18%406.63%440.61%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)401.16427.23455.00484.58516.07549.62566.11
Payout Ratio72.44%75.95%79.46%82.98%86.49%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)290.60324.49361.56402.08446.34494.66523.65

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.68%6.68%6.68%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)301.33304.18307.04
Year 2 PV (M)311.79317.73323.72
Year 3 PV (M)321.98331.22340.64
Year 4 PV (M)331.91344.67357.80
Year 5 PV (M)341.58358.08375.21
PV of Terminal Value (M)9,838.2710,313.4610,806.84
Equity Value (M)11,446.8611,969.3512,511.26
Shares Outstanding (M)137.92137.92137.92
Fair Value$83.00$86.78$90.71
Upside / Downside-22.43%-18.89%-15.22%

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