DDM Analysis: 301596.SZ

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$11.73 - $16.63	$14.15
Multi-Stage	$17.89 - $19.62	$18.74
Blended Fair Value	$16.44
Current Price	$89.28
Upside	-81.58%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019
DPS	-19.26%	0.00%	0.05	0.07	0.61	0.16	0.16	0.16	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
YoY Growth	-	-	-21.44%	-88.76%	289.55%	-5.76%	5.87%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	0.06%	0.14%	1.22%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	106.78
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	32.88
(=) Cash Retained (M)	73.90

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	21.36	13.35	8.01
Cash Retained (M)	73.90	73.90	73.90
(-) Cash Required (M)	-21.36	-13.35	-8.01
(=) Excess Retained (M)	52.54	60.55	65.89
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	59.77	59.77	59.77
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.88	1.01	1.10
LTM Dividend per Share	0.55	0.55	0.55
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.88	1.01	1.10
(=) Adjusted Dividend	1.43	1.56	1.65
WACC / Discount Rate	9.94%	9.94%	9.94%
Growth Rate	-2.00%	-1.00%	0.00%
Fair Value	$11.73	$14.15	$16.63
Upside / Downside	-86.86%	-84.15%	-81.38%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	106.78	105.71	104.65	103.61	102.57	101.55	104.59
Payout Ratio	30.79%	42.64%	54.48%	66.32%	78.16%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	32.88	45.07	57.01	68.71	80.17	91.39	96.75

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	9.94%	9.94%	9.94%
Growth Rate	-2.00%	-1.00%	0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)	40.58	41.00	41.41
Year 2 PV (M)	46.22	47.17	48.13
Year 3 PV (M)	50.16	51.71	53.29
Year 4 PV (M)	52.70	54.88	57.13
Year 5 PV (M)	54.09	56.91	59.84
PV of Terminal Value (M)	825.30	868.27	913.02
Equity Value (M)	1,069.04	1,119.93	1,172.82
Shares Outstanding (M)	59.77	59.77	59.77
Fair Value	$17.89	$18.74	$19.62
Upside / Downside	-79.97%	-79.01%	-78.02%

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Reach Machinery Co Ltd (301596.SZ)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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