DDM Analysis: 301163.SZ

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$2.94 - $4.17	$3.55
Multi-Stage	$4.54 - $4.98	$4.76
Blended Fair Value	$4.15
Current Price	$28.10
Upside	-85.23%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017
DPS	15.06%	0.00%	0.28	0.25	0.02	0.02	0.09	0.14	0.03	0.41	0.00	0.00
YoY Growth	-	-	12.43%	921.65%	40.13%	-79.60%	-38.58%	308.70%	-91.71%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	1.25%	1.17%	0.09%	0.05%	0.26%	0.42%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	36.03
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	11.65
(=) Cash Retained (M)	24.39

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	7.21	4.50	2.70
Cash Retained (M)	24.39	24.39	24.39
(-) Cash Required (M)	-7.21	-4.50	-2.70
(=) Excess Retained (M)	17.18	19.88	21.68
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	81.65	81.65	81.65
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.21	0.24	0.27
LTM Dividend per Share	0.14	0.14	0.14
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.21	0.24	0.27
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.35	0.39	0.41
WACC / Discount Rate	9.78%	9.78%	9.78%
Growth Rate	-2.00%	-1.00%	0.00%
Fair Value	$2.94	$3.55	$4.17
Upside / Downside	-89.55%	-87.38%	-85.15%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	36.03	35.67	35.31	34.96	34.61	34.27	35.29
Payout Ratio	32.32%	43.86%	55.39%	66.93%	78.46%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	11.65	15.64	19.56	23.40	27.16	30.84	32.65

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	9.78%	9.78%	9.78%
Growth Rate	-2.00%	-1.00%	0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)	14.11	14.25	14.40
Year 2 PV (M)	15.91	16.23	16.56
Year 3 PV (M)	17.16	17.69	18.23
Year 4 PV (M)	17.95	18.70	19.47
Year 5 PV (M)	18.38	19.34	20.34
PV of Terminal Value (M)	287.08	302.03	317.59
Equity Value (M)	370.59	388.24	406.58
Shares Outstanding (M)	81.65	81.65	81.65
Fair Value	$4.54	$4.76	$4.98
Upside / Downside	-83.85%	-83.08%	-82.28%

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Jiangsu Hongde Special Parts Co.,Ltd. (301163.SZ)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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