DDM Analysis: 300963.SZ

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$5.36 - $15.60	$8.43
Multi-Stage	$3.72 - $4.07	$3.89
Blended Fair Value	$6.16
Current Price	$18.76
Upside	-67.17%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2014
DPS	-5.38%	2.47%	0.07	0.06	0.05	0.05	0.05	0.09	0.03	0.00	0.03	0.08
YoY Growth	-	-	18.36%	9.73%	7.60%	-1.29%	-45.03%	252.16%	0.00%	-100.00%	-57.77%	47.23%
Dividend Yield	-	-	0.56%	0.80%	0.65%	0.73%	0.28%	0.51%	0.14%	0.00%	0.00%	0.44%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	76.52
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	27.27
(=) Cash Retained (M)	49.25

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	15.30	9.56	5.74
Cash Retained (M)	49.25	49.25	49.25
(-) Cash Required (M)	-15.30	-9.56	-5.74
(=) Excess Retained (M)	33.95	39.68	43.51
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	357.71	357.71	357.71
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.09	0.11	0.12
LTM Dividend per Share	0.08	0.08	0.08
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.09	0.11	0.12
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.17	0.19	0.20
WACC / Discount Rate	8.68%	8.68%	8.68%
Growth Rate	5.32%	6.32%	7.32%
Fair Value	$5.36	$8.43	$15.60
Upside / Downside	-71.42%	-55.08%	-16.87%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	76.52	81.35	86.50	91.97	97.78	103.96	107.08
Payout Ratio	35.64%	46.51%	57.38%	68.25%	79.13%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	27.27	37.84	49.63	62.77	77.37	93.57	99.05

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	8.68%	8.68%	8.68%
Growth Rate	5.32%	6.32%	7.32%
Year 1 PV (M)	34.49	34.81	35.14
Year 2 PV (M)	41.23	42.02	42.81
Year 3 PV (M)	47.53	48.89	50.29
Year 4 PV (M)	53.39	55.45	57.57
Year 5 PV (M)	58.85	61.70	64.66
PV of Terminal Value (M)	1,096.03	1,149.06	1,204.13
Equity Value (M)	1,331.53	1,391.94	1,454.59
Shares Outstanding (M)	357.71	357.71	357.71
Fair Value	$3.72	$3.89	$4.07
Upside / Downside	-80.16%	-79.26%	-78.32%

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Shanghai Zhongzhou Special Alloy Materials Co., Ltd. (300963.SZ)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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