Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

Jouder Precision Industry (Kunshan) Co., Ltd. (300549.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Manufacturing - Tools & AccessoriesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.36 - $0.49$0.43
Multi-Stage$0.70 - $0.76$0.73
Blended Fair Value$0.58
Current Price$19.33
Upside-97.01%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-14.10%-5.21%0.110.130.210.110.100.230.270.120.260.15
YoY Growth---17.95%-36.26%89.16%7.58%-56.05%-12.43%122.77%-53.76%71.96%-19.32%
Dividend Yield--0.57%0.76%1.49%0.75%0.59%2.05%1.80%0.58%0.81%1.39%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)9.71
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)9.35
(=) Cash Retained (M)0.36
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1.941.210.73
Cash Retained (M)0.360.360.36
(-) Cash Required (M)-1.94-1.21-0.73
(=) Excess Retained (M)-1.58-0.86-0.37
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)133.45133.45133.45
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.01-0.010.00
LTM Dividend per Share0.070.070.07
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.01-0.010.00
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.060.060.07
WACC / Discount Rate9.85%9.85%9.85%
Growth Rate-5.42%-4.42%-3.42%
Fair Value$0.36$0.43$0.49
Upside / Downside-98.14%-97.79%-97.47%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)9.719.288.878.488.107.747.98
Payout Ratio96.31%95.05%93.79%92.52%91.26%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)9.358.828.327.847.396.977.38

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.85%9.85%9.85%
Growth Rate-5.42%-4.42%-3.42%
Year 1 PV (M)7.958.038.11
Year 2 PV (M)6.756.897.04
Year 3 PV (M)5.735.926.11
Year 4 PV (M)4.875.085.29
Year 5 PV (M)4.134.364.59
PV of Terminal Value (M)63.8867.3370.92
Equity Value (M)93.3197.60102.06
Shares Outstanding (M)133.45133.45133.45
Fair Value$0.70$0.73$0.76
Upside / Downside-96.38%-96.22%-96.04%

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