Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Lens Technology Co., Ltd. (300433.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Hardware, Equipment & PartsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$138.08 - $162.69$152.46
Multi-Stage$111.00 - $121.80$116.30
Blended Fair Value$134.38
Current Price$33.48
Upside301.38%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS27.32%34.18%0.380.280.210.450.310.110.190.090.160.03
YoY Growth--32.41%34.99%-52.90%41.70%180.45%-41.14%109.02%-43.74%498.60%36.44%
Dividend Yield--1.48%2.00%1.56%3.82%1.20%0.77%2.13%0.53%1.04%0.26%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)4,095.91
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2,218.35
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,877.56
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)819.18511.99307.19
Cash Retained (M)1,877.561,877.561,877.56
(-) Cash Required (M)-819.18-511.99-307.19
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,058.381,365.571,570.37
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)5,007.065,007.065,007.06
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.210.270.31
LTM Dividend per Share0.440.440.44
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.210.270.31
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.650.720.76
WACC / Discount Rate-1.02%-1.02%-1.02%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$138.08$152.46$162.69
Upside / Downside312.43%355.38%385.92%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)4,095.914,362.144,645.684,947.655,269.255,611.755,780.10
Payout Ratio54.16%61.33%68.50%75.66%82.83%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2,218.352,675.223,182.113,743.594,364.635,050.585,346.60

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate-1.02%-1.02%-1.02%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)2,677.292,702.672,728.04
Year 2 PV (M)3,187.043,247.743,309.02
Year 3 PV (M)3,752.293,860.013,969.77
Year 4 PV (M)4,378.164,546.534,719.71
Year 5 PV (M)5,070.155,315.045,569.31
PV of Terminal Value (M)536,732.19562,656.55589,573.11
Equity Value (M)555,797.12582,328.55609,868.95
Shares Outstanding (M)5,007.065,007.065,007.06
Fair Value$111.00$116.30$121.80
Upside / Downside231.55%247.38%263.81%

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