DDM Analysis: 3004.SR

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$2.45 - $3.62	$3.01
Multi-Stage	$6.53 - $7.19	$6.85
Blended Fair Value	$4.93
Current Price	$8.23
Upside	-40.09%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	0.00%	-12.89%	0.50	0.25	0.50	0.50	0.25	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.95	1.50
YoY Growth	-	-	100.00%	-50.00%	0.00%	100.00%	0.00%	-100.00%	0.00%	-100.00%	-36.67%	-24.56%
Dividend Yield	-	-	5.53%	2.49%	4.48%	3.44%	1.92%	0.00%	0.03%	0.00%	8.95%	12.16%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	56.33
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	45.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)	11.33

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	11.27	7.04	4.22
Cash Retained (M)	11.33	11.33	11.33
(-) Cash Required (M)	-11.27	-7.04	-4.22
(=) Excess Retained (M)	0.06	4.29	7.11
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	180.00	180.00	180.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.00	0.02	0.04
LTM Dividend per Share	0.25	0.25	0.25
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.00	0.02	0.04
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.25	0.27	0.29
WACC / Discount Rate	6.32%	6.32%	6.32%
Growth Rate	-3.56%	-2.56%	-1.56%
Fair Value	$2.45	$3.01	$3.62
Upside / Downside	-70.29%	-63.47%	-56.03%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	56.33	54.89	53.49	52.12	50.78	49.49	50.97
Payout Ratio	79.89%	81.91%	83.93%	85.95%	87.98%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	45.00	44.96	44.89	44.80	44.68	44.54	47.15

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.32%	6.32%	6.32%
Growth Rate	-3.56%	-2.56%	-1.56%
Year 1 PV (M)	41.85	42.29	42.72
Year 2 PV (M)	38.90	39.72	40.53
Year 3 PV (M)	36.14	37.28	38.44
Year 4 PV (M)	33.56	34.97	36.43
Year 5 PV (M)	31.14	32.79	34.51
PV of Terminal Value (M)	994.04	1,046.66	1,101.48
Equity Value (M)	1,175.64	1,233.70	1,294.10
Shares Outstanding (M)	180.00	180.00	180.00
Fair Value	$6.53	$6.85	$7.19
Upside / Downside	-20.64%	-16.72%	-12.64%

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Northern Region Cement Company (3004.SR)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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