Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Fujian Yuanli Active Carbon Co.,Ltd. (300174.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Chemicals - SpecialtySector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$57.94 - $135.32$126.82
Multi-Stage$19.73 - $21.61$20.65
Blended Fair Value$73.73
Current Price$16.65
Upside342.84%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS10.11%6.43%0.120.070.090.090.050.070.100.110.090.07
YoY Growth--63.84%-14.80%0.23%77.62%-34.86%-23.77%-13.21%19.63%30.74%11.31%
Dividend Yield--0.77%0.46%0.51%0.64%0.30%0.47%0.52%0.37%0.30%0.60%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)245.01
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)42.43
(=) Cash Retained (M)202.59
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)49.0030.6318.38
Cash Retained (M)202.59202.59202.59
(-) Cash Required (M)-49.00-30.63-18.38
(=) Excess Retained (M)153.58171.96184.21
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)360.08360.08360.08
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.430.480.51
LTM Dividend per Share0.120.120.12
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.430.480.51
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.540.600.63
WACC / Discount Rate6.49%6.49%6.49%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$57.94$126.82$135.32
Upside / Downside247.97%661.65%712.74%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)245.01260.94277.90295.96315.20335.69345.76
Payout Ratio17.32%31.85%46.39%60.93%75.46%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)42.4383.11128.91180.32237.86302.12319.83

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.49%6.49%6.49%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)77.3278.0578.78
Year 2 PV (M)111.55113.68115.82
Year 3 PV (M)145.15149.31153.56
Year 4 PV (M)178.10184.95192.00
Year 5 PV (M)210.44220.60231.15
PV of Terminal Value (M)6,380.886,689.087,009.07
Equity Value (M)7,103.437,435.677,780.39
Shares Outstanding (M)360.08360.08360.08
Fair Value$19.73$20.65$21.61
Upside / Downside18.48%24.02%29.77%

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