Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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ATON Inc. (158430.KQ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Software - ApplicationSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3,089.12 - $4,480.59$3,764.34
Multi-Stage$5,114.95 - $5,623.41$5,364.23
Blended Fair Value$4,564.28
Current Price$8,100.00
Upside-43.65%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172012
DPS0.00%0.00%87.3218.540.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--370.90%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.68%0.43%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)9,552.86
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,968.69
(=) Cash Retained (M)7,584.17
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,910.571,194.11716.46
Cash Retained (M)7,584.177,584.177,584.17
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,910.57-1,194.11-716.46
(=) Excess Retained (M)5,673.606,390.076,867.71
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)22.6222.6222.62
(=) Excess Retained per Share250.87282.55303.67
LTM Dividend per Share87.0587.0587.05
(+) Excess Retained per Share250.87282.55303.67
(=) Adjusted Dividend337.92369.60390.72
WACC / Discount Rate8.72%8.72%8.72%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$3,089.12$3,764.34$4,480.59
Upside / Downside-61.86%-53.53%-44.68%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)9,552.869,457.339,362.769,269.139,176.449,084.689,357.22
Payout Ratio20.61%34.49%48.37%62.24%76.12%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,968.693,261.524,528.305,769.426,985.268,176.218,655.42

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.72%8.72%8.72%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)2,969.622,999.923,030.22
Year 2 PV (M)3,754.013,831.013,908.80
Year 3 PV (M)4,354.844,489.524,626.94
Year 4 PV (M)4,800.684,999.655,204.73
Year 5 PV (M)5,116.265,382.675,660.07
PV of Terminal Value (M)94,681.7899,612.08104,745.66
Equity Value (M)115,677.18121,314.84127,176.42
Shares Outstanding (M)22.6222.6222.62
Fair Value$5,114.95$5,364.23$5,623.41
Upside / Downside-36.85%-33.77%-30.58%

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