Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Nucor Corporation (0K9L.L)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial MaterialsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$83.45 - $138.16$107.67
Multi-Stage$103.39 - $113.25$108.23
Blended Fair Value$107.95
Current Price$138.04
Upside-21.80%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS1.19%0.95%2.252.222.302.082.122.122.092.092.072.06
YoY Growth--1.36%-3.56%10.45%-1.66%-0.08%1.38%0.01%0.88%0.34%0.91%
Dividend Yield--2.18%1.12%1.49%1.39%2.65%5.94%3.58%3.42%3.47%4.34%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,653.03
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)513.16
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,139.87
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)330.61206.63123.98
Cash Retained (M)1,139.871,139.871,139.87
(-) Cash Required (M)-330.61-206.63-123.98
(=) Excess Retained (M)809.26933.241,015.89
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)232.35232.35232.35
(=) Excess Retained per Share3.484.024.37
LTM Dividend per Share2.212.212.21
(+) Excess Retained per Share3.484.024.37
(=) Adjusted Dividend5.696.236.58
WACC / Discount Rate8.78%8.78%8.78%
Growth Rate1.83%2.83%3.83%
Fair Value$83.45$107.67$138.16
Upside / Downside-39.55%-22.00%0.09%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,653.031,699.811,747.921,797.391,848.251,900.561,957.58
Payout Ratio31.04%42.83%54.63%66.42%78.21%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)513.16728.12954.821,193.781,445.501,710.501,810.76

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.78%8.78%8.78%
Growth Rate1.83%2.83%3.83%
Year 1 PV (M)662.86669.37675.88
Year 2 PV (M)791.36806.98822.75
Year 3 PV (M)900.74927.54954.86
Year 4 PV (M)992.921,032.511,073.26
Year 5 PV (M)1,069.671,123.231,178.92
PV of Terminal Value (M)19,606.2120,588.0021,608.73
Equity Value (M)24,023.7625,147.6226,314.39
Shares Outstanding (M)232.35232.35232.35
Fair Value$103.39$108.23$113.25
Upside / Downside-25.10%-21.59%-17.96%

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