DDM Analysis: 002598.SZ

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$1.42 - $2.53	$1.88
Multi-Stage	$1.69 - $1.85	$1.76
Blended Fair Value	$1.82
Current Price	$11.70
Upside	-84.40%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	-8.46%	-3.62%	0.14	0.15	0.15	0.03	0.21	0.21	0.01	0.20	0.20	0.10
YoY Growth	-	-	-9.03%	0.93%	452.19%	-86.87%	-3.47%	2,109.04%	-95.13%	0.00%	100.00%	-50.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	1.30%	1.69%	1.22%	0.31%	3.11%	3.65%	0.12%	2.40%	1.68%	0.94%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	31.73
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	8.33
(=) Cash Retained (M)	23.40

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	6.35	3.97	2.38
Cash Retained (M)	23.40	23.40	23.40
(-) Cash Required (M)	-6.35	-3.97	-2.38
(=) Excess Retained (M)	17.05	19.43	21.02
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	312.71	312.71	312.71
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.05	0.06	0.07
LTM Dividend per Share	0.03	0.03	0.03
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.05	0.06	0.07
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.08	0.09	0.09
WACC / Discount Rate	8.17%	8.17%	8.17%
Growth Rate	2.31%	3.31%	4.31%
Fair Value	$1.42	$1.88	$2.53
Upside / Downside	-87.90%	-83.89%	-78.36%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	31.73	32.78	33.86	34.98	36.14	37.33	38.45
Payout Ratio	26.26%	39.01%	51.75%	64.50%	77.25%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	8.33	12.79	17.53	22.56	27.92	33.60	35.57

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	8.17%	8.17%	8.17%
Growth Rate	2.31%	3.31%	4.31%
Year 1 PV (M)	11.71	11.82	11.93
Year 2 PV (M)	14.69	14.98	15.27
Year 3 PV (M)	17.31	17.83	18.35
Year 4 PV (M)	19.61	20.39	21.19
Year 5 PV (M)	21.61	22.69	23.81
PV of Terminal Value (M)	442.17	464.21	487.12
Equity Value (M)	527.10	551.91	577.66
Shares Outstanding (M)	312.71	312.71	312.71
Fair Value	$1.69	$1.76	$1.85
Upside / Downside	-85.59%	-84.92%	-84.21%

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Shandong Zhangqiu Blower Co., Ltd (002598.SZ)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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