DDM Analysis: 002420.SZ

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$0.77 - $1.05	$0.91
Multi-Stage	$1.88 - $2.08	$1.98
Blended Fair Value	$1.44
Current Price	$8.66
Upside	-83.32%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	-6.41%	-0.51%	0.06	0.08	0.03	0.05	0.05	0.08	0.11	0.08	0.10	0.08
YoY Growth	-	-	-19.67%	159.34%	-42.65%	-4.13%	-37.31%	-24.98%	36.68%	-19.37%	32.16%	21.06%
Dividend Yield	-	-	0.92%	1.53%	0.42%	0.81%	1.18%	2.34%	2.61%	1.75%	1.14%	0.80%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	61.14
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	10.32
(=) Cash Retained (M)	50.82

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	12.23	7.64	4.59
Cash Retained (M)	50.82	50.82	50.82
(-) Cash Required (M)	-12.23	-7.64	-4.59
(=) Excess Retained (M)	38.59	43.18	46.24
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	403.85	403.85	403.85
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.10	0.11	0.11
LTM Dividend per Share	0.03	0.03	0.03
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.10	0.11	0.11
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.12	0.13	0.14
WACC / Discount Rate	7.35%	7.35%	7.35%
Growth Rate	-7.26%	-6.26%	-5.26%
Fair Value	$0.77	$0.91	$1.05
Upside / Downside	-91.12%	-89.46%	-87.84%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	61.14	57.32	53.73	50.37	47.22	44.27	45.59
Payout Ratio	16.88%	31.51%	46.13%	60.75%	75.38%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	10.32	18.06	24.79	30.60	35.59	39.84	42.18

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	7.35%	7.35%	7.35%
Growth Rate	-7.26%	-6.26%	-5.26%
Year 1 PV (M)	16.64	16.82	17.00
Year 2 PV (M)	21.05	21.51	21.97
Year 3 PV (M)	23.95	24.74	25.54
Year 4 PV (M)	25.68	26.80	27.97
Year 5 PV (M)	26.49	27.95	29.47
PV of Terminal Value (M)	644.92	680.44	717.52
Equity Value (M)	758.73	798.26	839.47
Shares Outstanding (M)	403.85	403.85	403.85
Fair Value	$1.88	$1.98	$2.08
Upside / Downside	-78.31%	-77.18%	-76.00%

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Guangzhou Echom Sci.&Tech.Co.,Ltd (002420.SZ)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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