Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $32.10 - $176.87 | $61.93 |
| Multi-Stage | $18.16 - $19.88 | $19.00 |
| Blended Fair Value | $40.47 | |
| Current Price | $71.50 | |
| Upside | -43.40% | |
| Decision | Don't Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | -27.12% | 7.79% | 0.17 | 0.15 | 0.26 | 0.51 | 0.58 | 0.83 | 0.74 | 0.29 | 0.25 | 0.09 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | 10.08% | -41.55% | -47.90% | -11.86% | -30.39% | 12.45% | 158.00% | 14.18% | 163.94% | 17.74% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 0.39% | 0.49% | 0.56% | 1.98% | 2.99% | 6.42% | 6.30% | 1.75% | 1.20% | 0.38% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 421.61 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 62.26 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 359.35 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 84.32 | 52.70 | 31.62 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 359.35 | 359.35 | 359.35 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -84.32 | -52.70 | -31.62 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 275.03 | 306.65 | 327.73 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 474.06 | 474.06 | 474.06 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 0.58 | 0.65 | 0.69 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 0.13 | 0.13 | 0.13 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 0.58 | 0.65 | 0.69 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 0.71 | 0.78 | 0.82 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 7.84% | 7.84% | 7.84% |
| Growth Rate | 5.50% | 6.50% | 7.50% |
| Fair Value | $32.10 | $61.93 | $176.87 |
| Upside / Downside | -55.10% | -13.38% | 147.37% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 421.61 | 449.01 | 478.20 | 509.28 | 542.39 | 577.64 | 594.97 |
| Payout Ratio | 14.77% | 29.81% | 44.86% | 59.91% | 74.95% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 62.26 | 133.87 | 214.52 | 305.09 | 406.54 | 519.88 | 550.35 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 7.84% | 7.84% | 7.84% |
| Growth Rate | 5.50% | 6.50% | 7.50% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 122.97 | 124.14 | 125.30 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 181.02 | 184.47 | 187.95 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 236.50 | 243.29 | 250.20 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 289.48 | 300.61 | 312.06 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 340.06 | 356.48 | 373.53 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 7,440.49 | 7,799.87 | 8,173.01 |
| Equity Value (M) | 8,610.52 | 9,008.86 | 9,422.06 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 474.06 | 474.06 | 474.06 |
| Fair Value | $18.16 | $19.00 | $19.88 |
| Upside / Downside | -74.60% | -73.42% | -72.20% |
| Ticker ⇵ | Company ⇵ | Dividend Yield % ▼ | Dividend Per Share ⇵ | Payout Ratio % ⇵ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MDC | M.D.C. Holdings, Inc. | 0.86% | $0.54 | 55.94% |
| AXP | American Express Company | 0.85% | $3.17 | 20.85% |
| FOXA | Fox Corporation | 0.85% | $0.62 | 13.96% |
| LMST | Limestone Bancorp, Inc. | 0.85% | $0.20 | 8.06% |
| RCL | Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. | 0.85% | $2.41 | 16.19% |
| AZZ | AZZ Inc. | 0.84% | $0.92 | 8.89% |
| HIBB | Hibbett, Inc. | 0.84% | $0.74 | 9.00% |
| MAR | Marriott International, Inc. | 0.84% | $2.62 | 27.38% |
| MORN | Morningstar, Inc. | 0.84% | $1.77 | 20.03% |
| SGH | SMART Global Holdings, Inc. | 0.84% | $0.14 | 30.96% |
| URI | United Rentals, Inc. | 0.84% | $7.13 | 18.10% |
| 0HYJ.L | Cintas Corporation | 0.83% | $1.54 | 34.15% |
| EFX | Equifax Inc. | 0.83% | $1.78 | 33.46% |
| GM | General Motors Company | 0.82% | $0.66 | 21.22% |
| KVSA | Khosla Ventures Acquisition Co. | 0.81% | $0.09 | 9.61% |
| WMT | Walmart Inc. | 0.81% | $0.91 | 31.92% |
| BMI | Badger Meter, Inc. | 0.80% | $1.41 | 30.10% |
| FRD | Friedman Industries, Incorporated | 0.80% | $0.16 | 9.82% |
| ITT | ITT Inc. | 0.80% | $1.40 | 22.66% |
| MLI | Mueller Industries, Inc. | 0.80% | $0.94 | 13.89% |
| SSSSL | SuRo Capital Corp. 6.00% Notes due 2026 | 0.80% | $0.20 | 8.46% |
| RGLD | Royal Gold, Inc. | 0.79% | $1.75 | 24.00% |
| VRSK | Verisk Analytics, Inc. | 0.79% | $1.74 | 26.41% |
| COF | Capital One Financial Corporation | 0.78% | $1.94 | 87.57% |
| EE | Excelerate Energy, Inc. | 0.78% | $0.22 | 9.21% |
| 0K36.L | Moody's Corporation | 0.77% | $3.82 | 30.70% |
| HCI | HCI Group, Inc. | 0.77% | $1.42 | 9.00% |
| PH | Parker-Hannifin Corporation | 0.77% | $6.85 | 24.15% |
| SEI | Solaris Energy Infrastructure, Inc. | 0.77% | $0.39 | 44.96% |
| 0HQN.L | Cboe Global Markets, Inc. | 0.76% | $1.90 | 20.31% |
| ASIC | Ategrity Specialty Holdings LLC | 0.76% | $0.15 | 12.77% |
| GL | Globe Life Inc. | 0.75% | $1.03 | 7.35% |
| 0KYY.L | S&P Global Inc. | 0.74% | $3.81 | 28.09% |
| PHM | PulteGroup, Inc. | 0.74% | $0.89 | 6.67% |
| ROP | Roper Technologies, Inc. | 0.74% | $3.20 | 22.09% |
| ZWS | Zurn Elkay Water Solutions Corporation | 0.74% | $0.35 | 30.63% |
| JOE | The St. Joe Company | 0.73% | $0.43 | 24.05% |
| TOL | Toll Brothers, Inc. | 0.73% | $0.99 | 7.16% |
| TTEK | Tetra Tech, Inc. | 0.73% | $0.25 | 26.25% |
| 0HCB.L | Alcoa Corporation | 0.72% | $0.40 | 9.08% |
| A | Agilent Technologies, Inc. | 0.72% | $0.99 | 21.64% |
| FCFS | FirstCash Holdings, Inc | 0.72% | $1.13 | 16.40% |
| TRAK | ReposiTrak, Inc. | 0.72% | $0.09 | 22.94% |
| BKNG | Booking Holdings Inc. | 0.71% | $37.78 | 24.39% |
| PGC | Peapack-Gladstone Financial Corporation | 0.71% | $0.20 | 10.22% |
| ASO | Academy Sports and Outdoors, Inc. | 0.70% | $0.37 | 6.63% |
| BRO | Brown & Brown, Inc. | 0.70% | $0.54 | 18.02% |
| INTU | Intuit Inc. | 0.70% | $4.39 | 29.97% |
| MSFT | Microsoft Corporation | 0.70% | $3.31 | 23.52% |
| NCR | NCR Corporation | 0.70% | $0.11 | 1.70% |