Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Hangzhou Binjiang Real Estate Group Co.,Ltd (002244.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Real Estate - DevelopmentSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$128.67 - $210.75$197.50
Multi-Stage$33.89 - $37.12$35.47
Blended Fair Value$116.49
Current Price$12.55
Upside828.19%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS4.69%9.73%0.680.891.091.060.810.540.390.150.150.23
YoY Growth---23.18%-18.48%2.83%30.76%49.32%37.23%162.86%-2.98%-32.45%-14.83%
Dividend Yield--6.51%12.98%11.87%15.40%18.07%13.00%7.58%2.03%2.20%3.06%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)3,306.90
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)817.34
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,489.56
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)661.38413.36248.02
Cash Retained (M)2,489.562,489.562,489.56
(-) Cash Required (M)-661.38-413.36-248.02
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,828.182,076.202,241.55
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)3,120.613,120.613,120.61
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.590.670.72
LTM Dividend per Share0.260.260.26
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.590.670.72
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.850.930.98
WACC / Discount Rate6.20%6.20%6.20%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$128.67$197.50$210.75
Upside / Downside925.30%1,473.71%1,579.26%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)3,306.903,521.853,750.773,994.574,254.224,530.744,666.66
Payout Ratio24.72%37.77%50.83%63.89%76.94%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)817.341,330.301,906.502,551.993,273.334,077.674,316.66

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.20%6.20%6.20%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,240.931,252.701,264.46
Year 2 PV (M)1,658.951,690.551,722.45
Year 3 PV (M)2,071.452,130.912,191.50
Year 4 PV (M)2,478.472,573.792,671.82
Year 5 PV (M)2,880.083,019.193,163.62
PV of Terminal Value (M)95,424.45100,033.48104,818.92
Equity Value (M)105,754.33110,700.62115,832.77
Shares Outstanding (M)3,120.613,120.613,120.61
Fair Value$33.89$35.47$37.12
Upside / Downside170.03%182.66%195.77%

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