DDM Analysis: 002172.SZ

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$0.34 - $0.51	$0.42
Multi-Stage	$2.79 - $3.11	$2.95
Blended Fair Value	$1.68
Current Price	$4.06
Upside	-58.50%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	-29.07%	-12.10%	0.04	0.04	0.05	0.12	0.13	0.20	0.11	0.07	0.00	0.10
YoY Growth	-	-	-5.53%	-28.33%	-56.17%	-7.73%	-34.44%	92.01%	51.70%	0.00%	-100.00%	-21.70%
Dividend Yield	-	-	1.10%	1.19%	1.46%	3.24%	3.67%	6.46%	2.11%	1.27%	0.00%	0.83%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	42.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	19.64
(=) Cash Retained (M)	22.36

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	8.40	5.25	3.15
Cash Retained (M)	22.36	22.36	22.36
(-) Cash Required (M)	-8.40	-5.25	-3.15
(=) Excess Retained (M)	13.96	17.11	19.21
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	890.72	890.72	890.72
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.02	0.02	0.02
LTM Dividend per Share	0.02	0.02	0.02
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.02	0.02	0.02
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.04	0.04	0.04
WACC / Discount Rate	0.34%	0.34%	0.34%
Growth Rate	-9.59%	-8.59%	-7.59%
Fair Value	$0.34	$0.42	$0.51
Upside / Downside	-91.54%	-89.59%	-87.48%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	42.00	38.39	35.09	32.08	29.32	26.81	27.61
Payout Ratio	46.77%	55.41%	64.06%	72.71%	81.35%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	19.64	21.27	22.48	23.32	23.86	24.13	25.54

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	0.34%	0.34%	0.34%
Growth Rate	-9.59%	-8.59%	-7.59%
Year 1 PV (M)	20.97	21.20	21.43
Year 2 PV (M)	21.84	22.33	22.82
Year 3 PV (M)	22.34	23.09	23.85
Year 4 PV (M)	22.52	23.54	24.58
Year 5 PV (M)	22.45	23.72	25.05
PV of Terminal Value (M)	2,376.77	2,511.15	2,651.55
Equity Value (M)	2,486.90	2,625.03	2,769.28
Shares Outstanding (M)	890.72	890.72	890.72
Fair Value	$2.79	$2.95	$3.11
Upside / Downside	-31.23%	-27.41%	-23.42%

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Jiangsu Aoyang Health Industry Co.ltd. (002172.SZ)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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