DDM Analysis: 001208.SZ

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$7.50 - $42.63	$14.15
Multi-Stage	$4.41 - $4.82	$4.61
Blended Fair Value	$9.38
Current Price	$12.26
Upside	-23.50%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017
DPS	22.39%	0.00%	0.10	0.09	0.07	0.14	0.03	0.03	0.05	0.06	0.00	0.00
YoY Growth	-	-	1.22%	34.01%	-48.38%	383.29%	-18.83%	-35.95%	-16.02%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	0.89%	1.16%	0.69%	1.17%	0.53%	0.66%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	114.96
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	45.62
(=) Cash Retained (M)	69.35

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	22.99	14.37	8.62
Cash Retained (M)	69.35	69.35	69.35
(-) Cash Required (M)	-22.99	-14.37	-8.62
(=) Excess Retained (M)	46.36	54.98	60.73
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	536.37	536.37	536.37
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.09	0.10	0.11
LTM Dividend per Share	0.09	0.09	0.09
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.09	0.10	0.11
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.17	0.19	0.20
WACC / Discount Rate	7.91%	7.91%	7.91%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$7.50	$14.15	$42.63
Upside / Downside	-38.82%	15.40%	247.69%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	114.96	122.44	130.40	138.87	147.90	157.51	162.24
Payout Ratio	39.68%	49.74%	59.81%	69.87%	79.94%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	45.62	60.90	77.99	97.03	118.22	141.76	150.07

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	7.91%	7.91%	7.91%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	55.91	56.44	56.97
Year 2 PV (M)	65.72	66.97	68.23
Year 3 PV (M)	75.06	77.22	79.41
Year 4 PV (M)	83.95	87.18	90.50
Year 5 PV (M)	92.41	96.88	101.51
PV of Terminal Value (M)	1,991.71	2,087.91	2,187.79
Equity Value (M)	2,364.76	2,472.59	2,584.42
Shares Outstanding (M)	536.37	536.37	536.37
Fair Value	$4.41	$4.61	$4.82
Upside / Downside	-64.04%	-62.40%	-60.70%

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Hunan Valin Wire & Cable Co.,Ltd. (001208.SZ)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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