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Definitive Analysis

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Xueda (Xiamen) Education Technology Group Co., Ltd. (000526.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Education & Training ServicesSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$20.66 - $35.02$26.92
Multi-Stage$79.99 - $88.32$84.07
Blended Fair Value$55.49
Current Price$44.77
Upside23.95%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-6.86%0.00%0.430.190.310.500.500.620.580.600.060.00
YoY Growth--123.80%-37.71%-37.22%-1.51%-18.68%6.28%-2.98%915.97%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.91%0.32%1.70%2.88%1.32%1.56%2.10%2.13%0.16%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)235.07
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)63.64
(=) Cash Retained (M)171.43
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)47.0129.3817.63
Cash Retained (M)171.43171.43171.43
(-) Cash Required (M)-47.01-29.38-17.63
(=) Excess Retained (M)124.42142.05153.80
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)135.51135.51135.51
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.921.051.14
LTM Dividend per Share0.470.470.47
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.921.051.14
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.391.521.60
WACC / Discount Rate4.58%4.58%4.58%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$20.66$26.92$35.02
Upside / Downside-53.85%-39.87%-21.79%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)235.07232.72230.39228.09225.81223.55230.26
Payout Ratio27.07%39.66%52.24%64.83%77.41%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)63.6492.29120.36147.87174.81201.20212.99

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate4.58%4.58%4.58%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)87.3588.2589.14
Year 2 PV (M)107.83110.05112.28
Year 3 PV (M)125.39129.27133.23
Year 4 PV (M)140.31146.13152.12
Year 5 PV (M)152.85160.81169.10
PV of Terminal Value (M)10,225.0910,757.5411,311.93
Equity Value (M)10,838.8411,392.0411,967.80
Shares Outstanding (M)135.51135.51135.51
Fair Value$79.99$84.07$88.32
Upside / Downside78.66%87.78%97.27%

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