Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $13.09 - $16.92 | $15.12 |
| Multi-Stage | $26.99 - $30.01 | $28.47 |
| Blended Fair Value | $21.80 | |
| Current Price | $40.53 | |
| Upside | -46.22% | |
| Decision | Don't Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | -22.47% | -12.68% | 0.71 | 0.65 | 2.05 | 2.05 | 4.17 | 2.54 | 2.69 | 2.50 | 2.40 | 2.39 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | 9.33% | -68.25% | 0.11% | -50.91% | 64.22% | -5.74% | 7.65% | 4.31% | 0.25% | -13.34% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 1.92% | 2.32% | 13.33% | 4.51% | 9.18% | 7.01% | 3.98% | 3.72% | 2.96% | 3.13% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 905.56 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 141.10 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 764.45 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 181.11 | 113.19 | 67.92 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 764.45 | 764.45 | 764.45 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -181.11 | -113.19 | -67.92 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 583.34 | 651.26 | 696.54 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 198.48 | 198.48 | 198.48 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 2.94 | 3.28 | 3.51 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 0.71 | 0.71 | 0.71 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 2.94 | 3.28 | 3.51 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 3.65 | 3.99 | 4.22 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.10% | 9.10% | 9.10% |
| Growth Rate | -14.68% | -13.68% | -12.68% |
| Fair Value | $13.09 | $15.12 | $16.92 |
| Upside / Downside | -67.70% | -62.68% | -58.26% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 905.56 | 781.63 | 674.67 | 582.34 | 502.64 | 433.86 | 446.87 |
| Payout Ratio | 15.58% | 30.47% | 45.35% | 60.23% | 75.12% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 141.10 | 238.13 | 305.96 | 350.76 | 377.57 | 390.47 | 413.36 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.10% | 9.10% | 9.10% |
| Growth Rate | -14.68% | -13.68% | -12.68% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 215.74 | 218.27 | 220.80 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 251.13 | 257.05 | 263.04 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 260.84 | 270.12 | 279.62 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 254.38 | 266.52 | 279.09 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 238.34 | 252.64 | 267.62 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 4,137.62 | 4,385.87 | 4,645.88 |
| Equity Value (M) | 5,358.06 | 5,650.47 | 5,956.05 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 198.48 | 198.48 | 198.48 |
| Fair Value | $26.99 | $28.47 | $30.01 |
| Upside / Downside | -33.40% | -29.76% | -25.96% |
| Ticker ⇵ | Company ⇵ | Dividend Yield % ▼ | Dividend Per Share ⇵ | Payout Ratio % ⇵ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MDC | M.D.C. Holdings, Inc. | 0.86% | $0.54 | 55.94% |
| AXP | American Express Company | 0.85% | $3.17 | 20.85% |
| FOXA | Fox Corporation | 0.85% | $0.62 | 13.96% |
| LMST | Limestone Bancorp, Inc. | 0.85% | $0.20 | 8.06% |
| RCL | Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. | 0.85% | $2.41 | 16.19% |
| AZZ | AZZ Inc. | 0.84% | $0.92 | 8.89% |
| HIBB | Hibbett, Inc. | 0.84% | $0.74 | 9.00% |
| MAR | Marriott International, Inc. | 0.84% | $2.62 | 27.38% |
| MORN | Morningstar, Inc. | 0.84% | $1.77 | 20.03% |
| SGH | SMART Global Holdings, Inc. | 0.84% | $0.14 | 30.96% |
| URI | United Rentals, Inc. | 0.84% | $7.13 | 18.10% |
| 0HYJ.L | Cintas Corporation | 0.83% | $1.54 | 34.15% |
| EFX | Equifax Inc. | 0.83% | $1.78 | 33.46% |
| GM | General Motors Company | 0.82% | $0.66 | 21.22% |
| KVSA | Khosla Ventures Acquisition Co. | 0.81% | $0.09 | 9.61% |
| WMT | Walmart Inc. | 0.81% | $0.91 | 31.92% |
| BMI | Badger Meter, Inc. | 0.80% | $1.41 | 30.10% |
| FRD | Friedman Industries, Incorporated | 0.80% | $0.16 | 9.82% |
| ITT | ITT Inc. | 0.80% | $1.40 | 22.66% |
| MLI | Mueller Industries, Inc. | 0.80% | $0.94 | 13.89% |
| SSSSL | SuRo Capital Corp. 6.00% Notes due 2026 | 0.80% | $0.20 | 8.46% |
| RGLD | Royal Gold, Inc. | 0.79% | $1.75 | 24.00% |
| VRSK | Verisk Analytics, Inc. | 0.79% | $1.74 | 26.41% |
| COF | Capital One Financial Corporation | 0.78% | $1.94 | 87.57% |
| EE | Excelerate Energy, Inc. | 0.78% | $0.22 | 9.21% |
| 0K36.L | Moody's Corporation | 0.77% | $3.82 | 30.70% |
| HCI | HCI Group, Inc. | 0.77% | $1.42 | 9.00% |
| PH | Parker-Hannifin Corporation | 0.77% | $6.85 | 24.15% |
| SEI | Solaris Energy Infrastructure, Inc. | 0.77% | $0.39 | 44.96% |
| 0HQN.L | Cboe Global Markets, Inc. | 0.76% | $1.90 | 20.31% |
| ASIC | Ategrity Specialty Holdings LLC | 0.76% | $0.15 | 12.77% |
| GL | Globe Life Inc. | 0.75% | $1.03 | 7.35% |
| 0KYY.L | S&P Global Inc. | 0.74% | $3.81 | 28.09% |
| PHM | PulteGroup, Inc. | 0.74% | $0.89 | 6.67% |
| ROP | Roper Technologies, Inc. | 0.74% | $3.20 | 22.09% |
| ZWS | Zurn Elkay Water Solutions Corporation | 0.74% | $0.35 | 30.63% |
| JOE | The St. Joe Company | 0.73% | $0.43 | 24.05% |
| TOL | Toll Brothers, Inc. | 0.73% | $0.99 | 7.16% |
| TTEK | Tetra Tech, Inc. | 0.73% | $0.25 | 26.25% |
| 0HCB.L | Alcoa Corporation | 0.72% | $0.40 | 9.08% |
| A | Agilent Technologies, Inc. | 0.72% | $0.99 | 21.64% |
| FCFS | FirstCash Holdings, Inc | 0.72% | $1.13 | 16.40% |
| TRAK | ReposiTrak, Inc. | 0.72% | $0.09 | 22.94% |
| BKNG | Booking Holdings Inc. | 0.71% | $37.78 | 24.39% |
| PGC | Peapack-Gladstone Financial Corporation | 0.71% | $0.20 | 10.22% |
| ASO | Academy Sports and Outdoors, Inc. | 0.70% | $0.37 | 6.63% |
| BRO | Brown & Brown, Inc. | 0.70% | $0.54 | 18.02% |
| INTU | Intuit Inc. | 0.70% | $4.39 | 29.97% |
| MSFT | Microsoft Corporation | 0.70% | $3.31 | 23.52% |
| NCR | NCR Corporation | 0.70% | $0.11 | 1.70% |