Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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PT Tempo Scan Pacific Tbk (TSPC.JK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$11,686.46 - $65,469.76$22,276.96
Multi-Stage$9,070.22 - $9,938.83$9,496.45
Blended Fair Value$15,886.70
Current Price$2,370.00
Upside570.32%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS22.42%4.28%88.16128.3864.7765.6040.7432.0631.8139.3239.1049.67
YoY Growth---31.33%98.22%-1.28%61.03%27.06%0.80%-19.10%0.58%-21.28%-14.31%
Dividend Yield--3.58%6.72%4.61%4.45%2.75%3.32%1.79%2.42%1.99%2.52%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,501,326.41
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)504,656.46
(=) Cash Retained (M)996,669.95
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)300,265.28187,665.80112,599.48
Cash Retained (M)996,669.95996,669.95996,669.95
(-) Cash Required (M)-300,265.28-187,665.80-112,599.48
(=) Excess Retained (M)696,404.67809,004.15884,070.47
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)4,503.584,503.584,503.58
(=) Excess Retained per Share154.63179.64196.30
LTM Dividend per Share112.06112.06112.06
(+) Excess Retained per Share154.63179.64196.30
(=) Adjusted Dividend266.69291.69308.36
WACC / Discount Rate6.53%6.53%6.53%
Growth Rate4.16%5.16%6.16%
Fair Value$11,686.46$22,276.96$65,469.76
Upside / Downside393.10%839.96%2,662.44%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,501,326.411,578,760.621,660,188.671,745,816.551,835,860.881,930,549.451,988,465.93
Payout Ratio33.61%44.89%56.17%67.45%78.72%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)504,656.46708,725.09932,501.811,177,476.731,445,241.241,737,494.501,839,330.99

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.53%6.53%6.53%
Growth Rate4.16%5.16%6.16%
Year 1 PV (M)658,926.90665,253.15671,579.39
Year 2 PV (M)806,062.19821,614.21837,314.83
Year 3 PV (M)946,303.91973,822.321,001,869.11
Year 4 PV (M)1,079,886.421,121,958.691,165,248.49
Year 5 PV (M)1,207,037.071,266,103.151,327,459.24
PV of Terminal Value (M)36,150,228.4137,919,231.6539,756,819.53
Equity Value (M)40,848,444.8942,767,983.1644,760,290.59
Shares Outstanding (M)4,503.584,503.584,503.58
Fair Value$9,070.22$9,496.45$9,938.83
Upside / Downside282.71%300.69%319.36%

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