Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company

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Sector

Transportadora de Gas del Sur S.A. (TGSU2.BA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Oil & Gas IntegratedSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3,513.28 - $4,967.95$4,232.35
Multi-Stage$5,064.82 - $5,569.57$5,312.29
Blended Fair Value$4,772.32
Current Price$6,260.00
Upside-23.76%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019
DPS0.00%0.00%0.000.000.000.000.0026.650.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%-100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)407,332.26
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)11,591.32
(=) Cash Retained (M)395,740.94
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)81,466.4550,916.5330,549.92
Cash Retained (M)395,740.94395,740.94395,740.94
(-) Cash Required (M)-81,466.45-50,916.53-30,549.92
(=) Excess Retained (M)314,274.49344,824.41365,191.02
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)752.75752.75752.75
(=) Excess Retained per Share417.50458.09485.14
LTM Dividend per Share15.4015.4015.40
(+) Excess Retained per Share417.50458.09485.14
(=) Adjusted Dividend432.90473.48500.54
WACC / Discount Rate10.08%10.08%10.08%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$3,513.28$4,232.35$4,967.95
Upside / Downside-43.88%-32.39%-20.64%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)407,332.26403,258.94399,226.35395,234.08391,281.74387,368.93398,989.99
Payout Ratio2.85%20.28%37.71%55.14%72.57%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)11,591.3281,766.93150,537.87217,925.22283,949.77348,632.03369,065.74

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate10.08%10.08%10.08%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)73,532.3374,282.6675,032.99
Year 2 PV (M)121,743.86124,241.11126,763.70
Year 3 PV (M)158,492.76163,394.26168,395.78
Year 4 PV (M)185,713.77193,410.74201,344.51
Year 5 PV (M)205,055.07215,732.76226,850.71
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,068,008.283,227,766.583,394,111.84
Equity Value (M)3,812,546.073,998,828.114,192,499.53
Shares Outstanding (M)752.75752.75752.75
Fair Value$5,064.82$5,312.29$5,569.57
Upside / Downside-19.09%-15.14%-11.03%

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