Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

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Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

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Mode

Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

PT Dana Brata Luhur Tbk (TEBE.JK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - Infrastructure OperationsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$867.11 - $1,315.90$1,078.03
Multi-Stage$1,763.16 - $1,941.91$1,850.78
Blended Fair Value$1,464.41
Current Price$2,820.00
Upside-48.07%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS0.00%0.00%101.11147.2170.595.004.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth---31.31%108.53%1,311.85%25.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--14.14%19.37%8.51%0.70%1.09%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)127,730.04
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)27,293.24
(=) Cash Retained (M)100,436.80
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)25,546.0115,966.269,579.75
Cash Retained (M)100,436.80100,436.80100,436.80
(-) Cash Required (M)-25,546.01-15,966.26-9,579.75
(=) Excess Retained (M)74,890.7984,470.5490,857.05
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,285.001,285.001,285.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share58.2865.7470.71
LTM Dividend per Share21.2421.2421.24
(+) Excess Retained per Share58.2865.7470.71
(=) Adjusted Dividend79.5286.9891.95
WACC / Discount Rate6.99%6.99%6.99%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$867.11$1,078.03$1,315.90
Upside / Downside-69.25%-61.77%-53.34%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)127,730.04126,452.74125,188.22123,936.33122,696.97121,470.00125,114.10
Payout Ratio21.37%35.09%48.82%62.55%76.27%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)27,293.2444,377.7461,117.8277,518.6693,585.37109,323.00115,730.54

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.99%6.99%6.99%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)41,060.4641,479.4541,898.43
Year 2 PV (M)52,322.0953,395.3454,479.48
Year 3 PV (M)61,401.9463,300.8465,238.49
Year 4 PV (M)68,587.1071,429.7274,359.79
Year 5 PV (M)74,131.8177,992.0382,011.40
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,968,163.522,070,650.372,177,362.81
Equity Value (M)2,265,666.942,378,247.742,495,350.40
Shares Outstanding (M)1,285.001,285.001,285.00
Fair Value$1,763.16$1,850.78$1,941.91
Upside / Downside-37.48%-34.37%-31.14%

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