Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

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Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

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Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

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Mode

Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

PT Sumber Global Energy Tbk (SGER.JK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: CoalSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$171.36 - $267.33$215.61
Multi-Stage$406.96 - $448.12$427.14
Blended Fair Value$321.37
Current Price$330.00
Upside-2.61%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020201920182017
DPS0.00%0.00%7.8417.152.141.560.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth---54.29%702.32%36.85%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.48%2.78%1.78%0.55%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)279,547.04
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)128,926.72
(=) Cash Retained (M)150,620.32
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)55,909.4134,943.3820,966.03
Cash Retained (M)150,620.32150,620.32150,620.32
(-) Cash Required (M)-55,909.41-34,943.38-20,966.03
(=) Excess Retained (M)94,710.91115,676.94129,654.29
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)15,586.9115,586.9115,586.91
(=) Excess Retained per Share6.087.428.32
LTM Dividend per Share8.278.278.27
(+) Excess Retained per Share6.087.428.32
(=) Adjusted Dividend14.3515.6916.59
WACC / Discount Rate6.21%6.21%6.21%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$171.36$215.61$267.33
Upside / Downside-48.07%-34.66%-18.99%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)279,547.04276,751.57273,984.05271,244.21268,531.77265,846.45273,821.84
Payout Ratio46.12%54.90%63.67%72.45%81.22%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)128,926.72151,925.24174,450.90196,510.86218,112.17239,261.80253,285.20

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.21%6.21%6.21%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)141,603.36143,048.29144,493.22
Year 2 PV (M)151,551.58154,660.25157,800.48
Year 3 PV (M)159,117.31164,038.12169,059.35
Year 4 PV (M)164,609.31171,431.60178,463.78
Year 5 PV (M)168,302.86177,066.78186,192.05
PV of Terminal Value (M)5,558,069.465,847,491.036,148,845.65
Equity Value (M)6,343,253.896,657,736.086,984,854.54
Shares Outstanding (M)15,586.9115,586.9115,586.91
Fair Value$406.96$427.14$448.12
Upside / Downside23.32%29.44%35.79%

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