DDM Analysis: SAPR11.SA

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$35.59 - $112.72	$57.29
Multi-Stage	$23.14 - $25.30	$24.20
Blended Fair Value	$40.74
Current Price	$7.25
Upside	461.99%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	0.43%	11.98%	0.25	0.24	0.19	0.17	0.19	0.25	0.19	0.18	0.12	0.12
YoY Growth	-	-	4.55%	24.63%	15.61%	-11.88%	-23.05%	32.24%	6.08%	42.39%	3.28%	47.17%
Dividend Yield	-	-	4.72%	4.96%	6.05%	5.05%	5.63%	6.97%	5.79%	7.51%	5.51%	16.51%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	2,131.11
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	412.74
(=) Cash Retained (M)	1,718.38

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	426.22	266.39	159.83
Cash Retained (M)	1,718.38	1,718.38	1,718.38
(-) Cash Required (M)	-426.22	-266.39	-159.83
(=) Excess Retained (M)	1,292.15	1,451.99	1,558.54
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	1,586.77	1,586.77	1,586.77
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.81	0.92	0.98
LTM Dividend per Share	0.26	0.26	0.26
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.81	0.92	0.98
(=) Adjusted Dividend	1.07	1.18	1.24
WACC / Discount Rate	8.68%	8.68%	8.68%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$35.59	$57.29	$112.72
Upside / Downside	390.93%	690.15%	1,454.81%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	2,131.11	2,269.63	2,417.16	2,574.28	2,741.60	2,919.81	3,007.40
Payout Ratio	19.37%	33.49%	47.62%	61.75%	75.87%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	412.74	760.18	1,151.06	1,589.53	2,080.15	2,627.83	2,781.85

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	8.68%	8.68%	8.68%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	692.87	699.44	706.01
Year 2 PV (M)	956.24	974.45	992.84
Year 3 PV (M)	1,203.57	1,238.12	1,273.33
Year 4 PV (M)	1,435.59	1,490.80	1,547.59
Year 5 PV (M)	1,652.98	1,732.82	1,815.72
PV of Terminal Value (M)	30,781.69	32,268.45	33,812.12
Equity Value (M)	36,722.94	38,404.09	40,147.60
Shares Outstanding (M)	1,586.77	1,586.77	1,586.77
Fair Value	$23.14	$24.20	$25.30
Upside / Downside	219.22%	233.83%	248.99%

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Companhia de Saneamento do Paraná - SANEPAR (SAPR11.SA)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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